Standings after Leg 2 of Player Haters Preakness V
Entering the backstretch, Big Tuna has a commanding lead over rest of the field. With only two legs left, he will begin eliminate Analysts from contention for the win.
Scenarios
Since a perfect Player Haters Trifecta earns 3 points, Analysts have to be within 3 points of the win or place to earn Purse in Leg 4. Thus:
For the Win:
Big Tuna will eliminate any Analysts who fall 4 or more points behind him. Currently, six Analysts are in must-Trifecta situations in Leg 3. Big Tuna can eliminate all Analysts if he extends his lead over the second place Analysts (currently 2 points) in Leg 3.
For the Place:
Place is wide open right now! However, if one of the Analysts with 1 or 2 points opens up a 4 point lead over other Analysts, both win and place will be out of reach for some Analysts.
Entering the backstretch, Little Tuna has eliminated The Strategist and leads all other Analysts by four points for the win. The Strategist currently holds place, but can only earn one more Trifecta point this week because her Home Team is on a bye week.
Scenarios
More than one Analyst can earn bonus points if two or more Home Teams have exactly the same offensive or defensive performance (scores). Scenarios are much messier than the following can account for in the case of ties for bonus points!
For the Place:
The Strategist’s Home Team is on a bye. She can finish with at best 2 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and +3.7 point differential per game. She can be outrun by any of the trailing Analysts who earns a 3-point Trifecta.
If Little Tuna takes the offensive bonus, other Analysts are competing for the defensive bonus to overtake or force a photo finish with The Strategist for place. If The Strategist does not get a Trifecta, the 2-point defensive bonus is enough to place.
In the event of a tie with The Strategist for place, The Bookie moves ahead due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. If tied, Big Tuna and Sponge Mom move ahead with a Trifecta that includes their Home Team.
All other Analysts need a second Correct Home Team Pick in the event of a tie with The Strategist. If multiple Analysts tie for place, Big Tuna and Sponge Mom have the advantage for Correct Home Team Picks, while other Analysts have head-to-head competitions that take first priority in specific photo finishes.
For the Win:
Little Tuna can only be beaten on tiebreakers and only if she does not earn any Trifecta points.
She currently has 1 Correct Home Team Pick and a -4.3 point differential per game–it is possible should an Analyst win all 4 points this week.
Big Tuna and Sponge Mom are in the strongest position with 2 Correct Home Team Picks (and will thus have 3 Correct Home Team Picks if either earns all 4 points this week).
All other Analysts currently with 1 Correct Home Team Pick must 1) equal Little Tuna in Trifecta points [4] AND b) best her in Correct Home Team Picks (1 or 2 depending on this week’s results) OR by point differential per game (currently -4.3). Atwork and Jimmy V are at a disadvantage for point differential at the moment but can overtake her with a Home Team win AND if Little Tuna’s Home Team loses by a touchdown or more.
Wise O. needs a) all 4 Trifecta points, b) Little Tuna’s Home Team to lose or not be picked, and c) a Home Team win by at least 20 points!
Box Out
See Leg 3 Scenarios. Analysts trailing in Trifecta points or Tiebreakers may be boxed out by an Analyst who enters the final Leg with a better position.
Little Tuna has a three point lead on the nearest Analyst and a four point lead on nine of ten Analysts.
Box Out
A Box Out occurs when one Analyst selects the same teams to win as an Analyst with fewer points–both Analysts hit a Trifecta together or not at all and, thus, the Analyst in the lead boxes out the challenger. Box Outs may occur in full (three Picks) or in part (one or two Picks). For instance, if two Analysts have two Picks in common, and both Teams from the different Picks win, then the front-running Analyst Boxes Out the trailing Analyst because both win or lose together. In other words, Analysts playing for one of the four Crowns need to consider which teams the Analyst in the lead may Pick to win.
Scenarios
Little Tuna will eliminate all Analysts if she wins 3 or more points in Leg 3. She will have 7 points total and the trailing Analysts* (see below) will at most have 6 points after Leg 4. Four points is the maximum that may be won in a single Leg, so she effectively wins the PC-Fecta Derby if she goes into Leg 4 with a 5+ point lead.
If Little Tuna earns 2 points, only one Analyst* (see below) may be in contention in Leg 4.
If Little Tuna earns 1 point, only The Strategist* (see below) and other Analysts who get a Trifecta in Leg 3 will remain in the competition.
If Little Tuna earns 0 points, then The Strategist* (see below) and Analysts who are within 1 Correct Home Team Pick will remain in contention.
* The Strategist’s Home Team is on a bye week in Leg 4 of the PC-Fecta Derby. She remains in contention for first place only if she draws within 1 Trifecta point and ties Little Tuna for Correct Home Team Picks in Leg 3. The Strategist, currently in second place with 1 Trifecta Point, may also eliminate other Analysts for the Place (2nd) if she gains a five point lead on any of the nine Analysts who currently have 0 Trifecta Points.
Tricky Picks
Thus, if an Analyst hopes to win or place in the PC-Fecta Derby, s/he must have a Trifecta (Correct Pick Three), but also consider how the leading Analysts may Pick.
As the alternative, every week, an Analyst may Pick Three for the Analyst of the Year (in other words, no concern for Picking their Home Team unless it is one of the top three options). When an Analyst is eliminated or gives up on a Crown race, the alternative is to Pick Three teams with no other regard than winning the Analyst of the Year competition. NOTE: The last two AoY Champions pursued this strategy for an entire season and won that title.
The Slate of Games for the divisional round are (in center column): Slate of Games in the Championship Round of Super Trifecta Bowl IV
The Championship round takes place over the next three weeks. This week, Analysts pick the two team they expect (or need) to make The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. In two weeks, the Analysts will pick the winner of The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth only 1 point in the Divisional round for all Analysts, so most points will have to come from Super Trifecta points.
A Home Team win is worth 3 Playoff Victory points in the Championship round (only). The Analysts with Home Teams remaining must pick their Home Team to win due to the rule that forbids picking against a Home Team. The Home Teams that progress will be eligible for Reverse PC-Fecta points. These Analysts may also pick either team from the other Conference Championship that does NOT include their Home Team.
Analysts without Home Teams may select any team to win. Correctly picking the two remaining #1 Seeds, however, will only yield 1 point total if the Analysts earns a Trifecta after The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. To earn more than 1 trifecta point, these Analysts should consider:
In the AFC, the Jaguars are un-owned and will earn 3 Player Hater points as well as 2 Seeder Redux points if correctly selected to beat the Patriots (5 total). These points are awarded with a Correct Pick and do not require a Trifecta.
In the NFC, all teams are owned so no Player Hater points are possible. The Vikings will award 1 Seeder Redux point in an upset of the Eagles. These points are awarded with a Correct Pick and do not require a Trifecta.
Analyst Scenarios
Analysts with Home Teams will remain in contention if their Home Teams win. Analysts without Home Teams will need the Jaguars to upset the Patriots to remain in contention. The scenarios based on current total points:
Wise Orangutan (9 points): Despite leading, Wise O. will need at least one Jaguars victory in order to hold his lead. If the Patriots win, Little Tuna in second will earn at least 3 Playoff Victory points to reach 11 total. The most he can earn with a trifecta that includes the Patriots is 3 points and only if the #2 seed Vikings move on to win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. However, if the Vikings go on to win, then Kal Krome will earn at least 5 points and have the opportunity for 3 more. So, Analysts can expect Wise O. to take the Jags, while he is at liberty to pick either the Vikings or Eagles to win in the second championship game. Total possible points if Jags win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 6 Player Hater (Jags) + 4 Seeder Redux (Jags/Vikings) + 1 Trifecta = 11 more points.
Little Tuna (9 points): If the Patriots win, Little Tuna will earn at least 3 Playoff Victory points to reach 11 total. She will also be eligible for PC-Fecta points against Atwork or Kal Krome (whichever Home Team moves on). She can pad her point total with a Correct Trifecta (1 point), or by correctly picking the #2 seed Vikings to win in the second championship game. If Patriots move on, she is forced to pick them to win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. Total possible points if Pats win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 3 Playoff Victory (Pats) + 3 Reverse PC-Fecta (Pats) + 1 Seeder Redux (Vikings) + 1 Trifecta = 8 more points (or 7 without Vikings).
Atwork (8 points): If the Eagles win, Atwork will earn at least 3 Playoff Victory points to reach 10 total. He will also be eligible for Reverse PC-Fecta points against Little Tuna. If the Patriots lose and Eagles win, he automatically earns all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If Eagles move on, he is forced to pick them to win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. He is at liberty to pick the Jags or Pats to reach The Game Which Shall Not Be Named, but will have to win the Defensive Reverse PC-Fecta points (2) to catch Little Tuna. He may pad his point total by correctly picking the Jags to move on (3 Player Hater and 2 Seeder Redux points) and/or with a Correct Trifecta (1 point). Total possible points if Eagles and Pats reach The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 3 Playoff Victory (Eagles) + 3 Reverse PC-Fecta (Eagles) + 1 Trifecta = 7 more points. Total possible points if Eagles and Jags reach The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 3 Playoff Victory (Eagles) + 3 Reverse PC-Fecta (Eagles) + 3 Player Hater (Jags) + 2 Seeder Redux (Jags) + 1 Trifecta = 12 more points.
B-Reezy (5 points): B-Reezy needs two Jaguars victory in order to hold his lead. He is at liberty to pick either the Vikings or Eagles to win in the second championship game. Total possible points if Jags win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 6 Player Hater (Jags) + 4 Seeder Redux (Jags/Vikings) + 1 Trifecta = 11 more points (or 10 without Vikings).
Kal Krome (5 points): If the Vikings win, Kal will earn at least 3 Playoff Victory and 1 Seeder Redux to reach 9 total. He will also be eligible for Reverse PC-Fecta points against Little Tuna. If the Patriots lose and Vikings win, he automatically earns all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points for 12 total. If Vikings move on, he is forced to pick them to win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. He is at liberty to pick the Jags or Pats to reach The Game Which Shall Not Be Named, but will have to win at least the Defensive Reverse PC-Fecta (2) to force a tiebreaker with Little Tuna. He may pad his point total by correctly picking the Jags to move on (3 Player Hater and 2 Seeder Redux points) and/or with a Correct Trifecta (1 point). Total possible points if Vikings beat Pats in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 3 Playoff Victory (Vikings) + 3 Reverse PC-Fecta (Vikings) + 2 Seeder Redux (Vikings) + 1 Trifecta = 9 more points. Total possible points if Vikings beat Jags in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 3 Playoff Victory (Eagles) + 3 Reverse PC-Fecta (Eagles) + 3 Player Hater (Jags) + 3 Seeder Redux (Vikings/Jags) + 1 Trifecta = 13 more points.
Big Tuna: B-Reezy needs two Jaguars victory in order to hold his lead and must pick differently than B-Reezy and Wise O. in order to avoid the Box Out. He is at liberty to pick either the Vikings or Eagles to win in the second championship game. Total possible points if Jags win The Game Which Shall Not Be Named: 6 Player Hater (Jags) + 4 Seeder Redux (Jags/Vikings) + 1 Trifecta = 11 more points (or 10 without Vikings).
Analyst with 0 points have been eliminated. The most possible is 11 points with a Jags victory and these Analysts will be Boxed Out by the six Analysts running in front of them. Play for pride!
The Slate of Games for the divisional round are (in center column):
Slate of Games in the Division Round of Super Trifecta Bowl IV
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional round for all Analysts.
A Home Team win is worth 2 Playoff Victory points. It is not necessary to pick the Home Team to win.
If an Analyst correctly picks his or her Home Team to win in the Divisional round, he or she may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team). Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are not eligible for PCFecta points in the division round.
In the AFC, the Titans are un-owned and will earn 2 Player Hater points as well as 4 Seeder Redux points if correctly selected to beat the Patriots (6 total). The Jaguars are un-owned and will earn 2 Player Hater points and 1 Seeder Redux point if correctly selected to beat the Steelers (3 total). These points are awarded with a Correct Pick and do not require a Trifecta.
In the NFC, all teams are owned so no Player Hater points are possible. The Falcons will award 5 Seeder Redux points in an upset of the Eagles and the Saints will award 2 Seeder Redux points in an upset of the Vikings. These points are awarded with a Correct Pick and do not require a Trifecta.
Note: If an Analyst’s Home Team has been eliminated, the only path to victory is to pick the NFC correctly PLUS pick one or both of the un-owned teams in the AFC (and hope they win!).
Useful links:
Super Trifecta Bowl rules: http://www.roi2partners.com/wftl/superfecta-bowl/
Last year, the Patriots were un-owned and The Bookie beat Atwork when the un-owned team won The Game Which Shall Not Be Named.
The scenarios include only the teams on our Slate of Games. To see all scenarios for Week 16, see the link below. A “+” indicates two or more games determine the berth scenario. An “OR” in capital letters indicates start of a new scenario to clinch.
As this is the final week and only a few seed positions remain, the scenarios are listed in order of Seeder point value. Below the Seeder point scenarios are estimates for what each Analyst needs to earn The Seeders Cup. Reminder for the co-leaders: tie games bust a trifecta, but an Analyst can earn Seeder points should a game end in a tie or a team back into the playoffs despite losing.
AFC Homefield Advantage (4 points): Patriots or Steelers?
Patriots (current AFC 1st seed): 1) NE win OR 2) PIT loss OR 3) NE tie + PIT tie Steelers (current AFC 2nd seed): 1) PIT win + NE loss or tie OR 2) PIT tie + NE loss
Note: If Patriots win, a Steelers win is worth no Seeder points. If you pick both teams, only one will be worth 4 points.
NFC First-round Bye (3 points): Panthers?
The Vikings are currently the third-seed and control their own destiny. If they lose, then
Panthers (current NFC 5th seed): 1) CAR win + NO loss or tie + MIN loss + LAR loss or tie
Note: All four games must end in this manner for the Panthers to jump from 5th to 2nd seed.
NFC South Division (2 points): Saints or Panthers?
Saints (current NFC 4th seed): 1) NO win OR 2) CAR loss OR 3) NO tie + CAR tie Panthers (current NFC 5th seed): 1) CAR win + NO loss or tie OR 2) CAR tie + NO loss
Note: If the Vikings take the first-round bye (3), Panthers can still earn the division title Seeder points (2). If both Vikings and Saints win to take both, then Panthers are worth 0 Seeder points. If you pick both Saints and Panthers, only one will be worth points.
NFC Wildcard Playoff Berth (1 point): Seahawks or Falcons
Falcons (current AFC 6th seed): 1) ATL win OR 2) SEA loss OR 3) ATL tie + SEA tie Seahawks (current AFC 7th seed): 1) SEA win + ATL loss or tie OR 2) SEA tie + ATL loss
Note: If Falcons win, a Seahawks win is worth no Seeder points. If you pick both teams, only one will be worth 1 point.
AFC Wildcard Playoff Berth (1 point): Ravens
Ravens (current AFC 5th seed): 1) BAL win or tie OR 2) BUF loss or tie OR 3) TEN loss or tie
The maximum winning Trifecta points in Leg 4 are 9 points: AFC Homefield (Patriots or Steelers), NFC First-round Bye (Panthers), and AFC/NFC Wildcard (Ravens, Falcons, or Seahawks). More likely, due to the Panthers scenario, are 8 points: AFC Homefield (Patriots or Steelers), NFC South Division (Panthers or Saints), and AFC/NFC Wildcard (Ravens, Falcons, or Seahawks). That allows 12 different combinations for a winning trifecta. If an Analyst needs fewer than 8/9 points to win, then other games are available for picks.
The strength of each Analyst position in descending order is:
Little Tuna: Needs only 5 Trifecta points to beat all but The Strategist. If she remains tied with The Strategist, she needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and Seeder Points (+3 currently).
The Strategist: Needs only 5 Trifecta points to beat all but Little Tuna. If she remains tied with Little Tuna, she needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake her in Seeder Points (-3 currently).
Wise Orangutan: Needs 6 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) OR NFC First-round Bye (Panthers) + two Wildcard berths (Ravens + Falcons OR Ravens + Seahawks). He needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake Little Tuna in Seeder Points (-5 currently) in the event of a tie.
The Bookie: Needs 6 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. She must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) OR NFC First-round Bye (Panthers) + two Wildcard berths (Ravens + Falcons OR Ravens + Seahawks). She needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake Little Tuna in Seeder Points (-7 currently) in the event of a tie.
Craft Brew: Needs 7 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers). He also needs either 1) an NFC South winner (Saints or Panthers) to catch the leaders OR 2) two Wildcard berths (Ravens + Falcons OR Ravens + Seahawks). He also needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake the leaders in Seeder Points (-6 currently) in the event of a tie.
Atwork: Needs 8 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) AND an NFC South winner (Saints or Panthers) AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks) to catch the leaders. He also needs to keep pace in Correct Home Team Picks (tied) and overtake Little Tuna in Seeder Points (-7 currently) in the event of a tie.
Big Tuna: Needs 9 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) AND an NFC first-round bye (Panthers) AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks) to catch the leaders. If he plays for a tie at 16 points, he needs both the Patriots and Panthers to lose, so he must pick the Steelers AND Saints AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks). If the tie scenario plays out, he will overtake Little Tuna and The Strategist with 3 Correct Home Team Picks.
B-Reezy: Needs 9 Trifecta points to overtake the leaders. He must pick an AFC Homefield winner (Patriots or Steelers) AND an NFC first-round bye (Panthers) AND a Wildcard team (Ravens or Falcons or Seahawks) to catch the leaders. Since he can’t pick his Home Team Chiefs and earn 8 or 9 points, if he plays for a tie at 16 points, he will lose the tiebreaker on Seeder Points (-8 currently) in the event of a tie.
Kal Krome: We are afraid Kal has been eliminated. Playing for pride!
Scenarios | Analyst of the Year | Week 16:
The Strategist has built an insurmountable lead down the homestretch!
The scenarios include only the teams on our Slate of Games. To see all scenarios for Week 16, see the link below. A “+” indicates two or more games determine the berth scenario. An “OR” in capital letters indicates start of a new scenario to clinch.
AFC
Patriots clinch homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs (4 points) with NE win + PIT loss + JAX loss or tie.
Patriots clinch a first-round bye (3 points) with 1) NE win + PIT loss OR 2) NE win + JAX loss or tie OR 3) NE tie + JAX loss
Steelers clinch a first-round bye (3 points) with 1) PIT win + JAX loss or tie OR 2) PIT tie + JAX loss OR
Chiefs clinch AFC West (2 points) with KC win OR 2) LAC loss OR 3) KC tie + LAC tie
Titans clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) TEN win + BAL loss + BUF loss
NFC
Eagles clinch homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs (4 points) with 1) PHI win OR 2) MIN loss OR 3) PHI tie + MIN tie
Rams clinch NFC West (2 points) with 1) LAR win or tie OR 2) SEA loss or tie
Rams clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) DET loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss
Saints clinch NFC South (2 points) with 1) NO win + CAR loss
Saints clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) NO win or tie OR 2) DAL-SEA tie
Panthers clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) CAR win or tie OR 2) DAL-SEA tie
Falcons clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with 1) ATL win OR 2) ATL tie + DAL-SEA tie + DET loss or tie
Note: The unowned postseason contender Titans host the Rams and unowned postseason contender Falcons visit the Saints in Leg 3. To see all scenarios including the Jaguars and Vikings see the link below.
The scenarios include only the teams on our Slate of Games. To see all scenarios for Week 15, see the link below. A “+” indicates two or more games determine the berth scenario. An “OR” in capital letters indicates start of a new scenario to clinch.
Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs with a PIT win + JAX loss or tie (4 seeder points). Pittsburgh clinches first-round bye with PIT win OR PIT tie + JAX loss (3 seeder points).
New England clinches AFC East division with a NE win or tie OR BUF loss or tie (2 seeder points). New England clinches a playoff berth with BAL loss or tie (1 seeder point).
Philadelphia clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs with a PHI win + MIN loss (4 seeder points). Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye with a PHI win OR PHI tie + LAR loss or tie + NO loss or tie + CAR loss or tie (3 seeder points).
Rams clinch a playoff berth with LAR win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie + NO loss + ATL loss (1 seeder point).
Jaguars and Vikings also may clinch playoff berths (but are not available in our Slate of Games).
“OR” in capital letters indicates start of a new scenario to clinch.
New England clinches AFC East division (2 points) with win or tie OR BUF loss or tie
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division (2 points) with win or tie. Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth (1 points) with BUF loss or tie.
Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth (1 pooint) with JAX win + BUF loss + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + LAC loss or tie + OAK-KC game does not end in a tie.
Philadelphia clinches NFC East division (2 points) with win or tie OR DAL loss or tie.
Minnesota clinches NFC North division (2 points) with win or tie OR DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie
Los Angeles Rams clinch a playoff berth (1 point) with LAR win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie + DAL loss or tie + CAR loss + ATL loss
New Orleans clinches a playoff berth (1 point) with NO win + CAR loss or tie + DAL loss or tie OR NO win + CAR loss + DET loss or tie OR NO win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR NO win + CAR loss + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL OR NO win + CAR tie + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL and GB OR NO win + CAR tie + GB loss or tie + NO clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL.
See Week 14 clinching scenarios here: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000888855/article/nfl-playoffclinching-scenarios-for-week-14.
Patriots clinch the AFC East with a win over the Dolphins OR if Bills lose to Colts on Sunday (Value = 2 Seeder Points).
Eagles clinch the NFC East title with a win over the Rams OR if Cowboys lose to the Giants (Value = 2 Seeder Points).
Vikings clinch NFC North with a win over the Panthers OR if both a) Lions lose to the Buccaneers AND b) Packers lose to Browns (Value = 2 Seeder Points).
As we thought last week, no Analyst has been eliminated in the Fibonacci Stakes yet… The base Trifecta is worth 5 points and with 3 Fibonacci bonuses an Analyst can earn 8 points total to overtake the current leaders. But, but, but…
The leaders, Little Tuna and Craft Brew, have an advantage with this week’s slate of (only) 6 games. A reminder to the other Analysts: if you have the same picks as the leaders, you will be boxed out of the winner’s circle! If the Analysts wipe out, Little Tuna coasts to a win.
That said, the race is quite a mess and The Clearinghouse begins with a disclaimer… I think this is correct!
The front runners:
Little Tuna: Although Little Tuna leads by 1 Trifecta point, Craft Brew is in a dead heat for first place. The only way for her to have a guaranteed win is to take the same three teams as last week for 8 points total. If Little Tuna changes even one team and Craft Brew comes from behind to tie her in Trifecta points, he will win due to a tiebreaker advantage (note: assuming both keep their Home Teams, see below!). They both have the Seahawks and Patriots from last week, they both have 3 Correct Home Team Selections, and they both have 6 Fibonacci bonus points. If Little Tuna tries to box out Craft Brew by taking the same three teams (i.e., adding the Steelers to her list), Craft Brew will gain an extra Fibonacci point in a winning trifecta and then win the Fibonacci Stakes based on the third tiebreaker: most Fibonacci bonus points during the race. On the other hand, if Craft Brew does not earn a trifecta, then Little Tuna beats every other Analyst if she gets a Trifecta worth any value.
Craft Brew: Whereas Little Tuna has to defend against Craft Brew on her heels and the rest of the field far behind, Craft Brew really only needs to focus on beating the front runner. If he gets a winning trifecta and ties or takes the lead over Little Tuna, he wins. Thus, the Trifecta is his main concern. Added note to Craft Brew: Holding the same three teams will prevent Little Tuna from boxing you out. Conversely, swapping out the Steelers for any another team gives Little Tuna an advantage if she keeps the Patriots or takes more Fibonacci bonus picks.
The laggards:
While Little Tuna and Craft Brew have to strategize against each other, the bottom of the field cannot win unless neither front runner get a Trifecta. Starting at the bottom of the field, where the scenarios are easier:
Atwork: Lucky you, no need to send your picks this week! You must take Eagles, Saints, Steelers again for 8 points and a possible 9 points total. To win, however, you need help: the Patriots must also lose and all other Analysts must not exceed 9 points total AND no more than 3 Home Team Selections. Atwork is 3 lengths behind in the AoY, so the Fibonacci may be the best play for more purse this year!
B-Reezy: As he is wont to do, B-Reezy will have to weigh the chance to win the Fibonacci versus the chance to defend his AoY crown. Unlike Atwork, B-Reezy cannot end in a tie with Little Tuna. He must also keep the same three teams — Chiefs*/Saints*/Steelers* — and hope not to end in a tie with other Analysts because his Home Team has yielded a dismal 0 Correct Home Team Selections. With 10 points, the one Analyst he beats in a tie is…
Wise Orangutan: Wise O. has 3 trifecta points, but due to taking the Seahawks and Eagles last week (who play each other this week), he can only reach 10 points total. He will lose in most tie scenarios, so none of the other Analysts need to concern themselves with his picks–and all can expect a bizarre pick if Wise O. wants to win the Fibonacci Stakes rather than the AoY… in other words, Go Bills!
The contenders:
The other Analysts with 3 or 4 trifecta points and the opportunity to earn 8 points this week:
One of the bizarr-o aspects of this little game is that Analysts rarely have the same three picks! Surprisingly, every Analyst not named Wise O. who has 3 Trifecta points can earn 8 points this week and not worry about being boxed out. However, if the Fibonacci Stakes ends in a tie at 11 points among the Analysts who had 3 points to start Leg 4, the order of strength is:
The Bookie: The Bookie has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Big Tuna, 3 Correct Home Team Selections, and 6 Fibonacci bonus points. If her same three teams win and the front runners lag, she wins the Fibonacci Stakes. If the race ends in a tie of less than 10 points, she will still have her head-to-head advantage over Big Tuna and advantages over Kal Krome provided she keeps the Rams in her winning Trifecta.
Big Tuna: With the loss to The Bookie, Big Tuna has to avoid a tie with The Bookie. His Home Team plays The Strategist’s Home Team this week, and that will determine the tiebreaker between the two. If he expects the Saints to beat the Panthers this week, he can keep the Saints and play for a tie with The Strategist. Other than The Bookie, Big also holds advantages over all other Analysts who can reach 10 or more points this weekend.
Kal Krome: Kal Krome has only 2 Correct Home Team Picks, so he trails The Bookie and Big Tuna in a tie. He can win with the same three teams as last week if the Patriots and Chiefs also lose. He beats the Wise O. in a tiebreaker due to head-to-head competition.
Leaving….
The Strategist: In third place currently with 4 Trifecta points, the Strategist has a couple of options provided that Little Tuna and Craft Brew fail to close out the race. With the same three teams, she reaches 12 points and wins outright. If she shoots for 11 points, she has to find a combination that does end in a tie with The Bookie, Big Tuna, or Kal Krome–all three have more Home Team Picks at this time. Her Panthers play Big Tuna’s Saints this week, so if she expects the Panthers to win, her primary threat is The Bookie because Kal Krome had the Saints last week (he will either lose with the Saints or have to change his pick).
AoY Eliminations:
At this time, only Kal Krome can be eliminated before Week 13 in the Analyst of the Year Competition. If The Strategist earns 1 more Trifecta and Kal Krome does not, he will be down by 5 Trifectas with only 4 weeks remaining.
