Ravens won a playoff berth (week 14), Chiefs won division title (Week 14), and Saints won division title (week 13).
Playoff-Clinching Scenarios
Playoff-clinching scenarios per NFL.com and the potential *bonus* Seeders points:
Homefield Advantage (4 points)
Ravens clinch with (a) Win AND Patriots loss AND Chiefs loss/tie
First-Round Bye (3 points)
Ravens clinch with (a) Win AND Patriots loss, or (b) Win AND Chiefs loss/tie, or (c) Tie AND Chiefs loss
Division Title (2 points)
Ravens clinch with (a) Win/Tie or (b) Steelers loss/tie
Play Berth (1 point)
Bills clinch with (a) Win
Patriots clinch with (a) Win/Tie
Packers clinch with (a) Win AND Rams loss/tie or (b) Tie AND Rams loss
49ers clinch with (a) Win/Tie, or (b) Rams loss/tie, or (c) Vikings loss AND Packers loss
Seahawks clinch with (a) Win AND Rams loss/tie, or (b) Win AND Vikings loss, or (c) Win AND Packers loss AND Vikings tie, or (d) Tie AND Rams loss
Analyst of the Year | Eliminations
Analysts have to be within 2 Trifectas of the leader, Jimmy V, to remain in contention for the Win in the Marathon of the Ass in Week 16. If Jimmy V earns another Trifecta, (a) Atwork must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Win and (b) Craft Brew is eliminated for the Win. If Jimmy V‘s Trifecta busts, (a) Craft Brew must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Win.
Analysts have to be within 2 Trifectas of the second place Analyst, Atwork, to remain in contention for Place in the Marathon of the Ass in Week 16. If Atwork earns another Trifecta, (a) Craft Brew remains eligible for one more week with or without a Trifecta, (b) Roxy Trot and B-Reezy must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Place and (c) Sponge Mom and The Bookie are eliminated for the Place. If Atwork‘s Trifecta busts, (a) Sponge Mom and The Bookie must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Place.
Playoff-clinching scenarios per NFL.com and the potential *bonus* Seeders points:
Division title (2 points)
Ravens clinch with (a) Win AND Steelers loss/tie or (b) Tie and Steelers loss
Chiefs clinch with (a) Win AND Raiders loss
Playoff Berths (1 point)
Ravens clinch with (a) Win, (b) Tie AND Texans loss/tie, (c) Tie AND Titans loss/tie, or (d) Texans loss AND Colts loss/tie AND Raiders-Titans tie
Bills clinch with (a) Win AND Raiders loss/tie AND Colts loss/tie
Patriots clinch with (a) NE Win, (b) Tie AND Steelers loss, (c) Tie AND Texans loss/tie, (d) Tie AND Titans loss/tie, or (e) Texans loss AND Colts loss/tie AND Raiders-Titans tie
49ers clinch with (a) Win AND Rams loss/tie or (b) Tie and Rams loss
Seahawks clinch with (a) Win or Tie.
Analyst of the Year | Eliminations
Analysts have to be within 3 Trifectas of the leader, Jimmy V, to remain in the Marathon of the Ass in Week 15.
If Jimmy V earns another Trifecta, (a) Roxy Trot must earn a Trifecta to stay in competition for the Win and (b) B-Reezy and The Bookie are eliminated for the Win.
If Jimmy V‘s Trifecta busts, (a) B-Reezy and The Bookie must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Win.
Currently, Sponge Mom and Woody are tied for first place with 28 points each, and B-Reezy follows closely in third place with 27 points. All three Analysts can make the same three Picks this week.
A *base* Trifecta with three Fibonacci Bonuses is worth 21 points. A *lame* Trifecta with two Fibonacci Bonuses is worth 13 points. If any of the three leaders earn the *lame* Trifecta, the other Analysts will need to reach at least 40 or 41 points to challenge for the Win! If none earn a *lame* Trifecta, 29 points is the target for the Win.
Scenarios for the Win
Sponge Mom holds the tiebreakers over Woody so she can take the Crown with a 21-point *base* Trifecta. Woody obviously needs Sponge Mom to falter for her 21-point *base* Trifecta to Win, and B-Reezy needs both Sponge Mom and Woody to falter for his 21-point *base* Trifecta to Win.
Notably, the three leaders share two Picks in common with one another, so (a) if two of these Picks are incorrect, then only one will finish the home stretch with a *lame* Trifecta at 40 or 41 points, or (b) if one or more of the leaders change one Pick, then the most they can earn is a 16-point Trifecta for 43 to 44 points total.
Either scenario (a or b ) opens up opportunities for…
The Bookie (24) and KateTDid (24) who trail by only 4 points. Both also share two picks in common with the three leaders, so they need the Patriots to be one of the losers this week. They will need to keep the same three Picks to beat the leaders outright (more points, no tiebreakers)–plus KateTDid needs The Bookie‘s Saints Pick to lose for the Win. Wise Orangutan at 22 points can also take advantage of scenario a or b if he keeps his same three Picks because two of his Picks (Texans/Ravens) are the opponents of the leaders’ Picks (Patriots/49ers).
Craft Brew is partially Boxed Out by Woody and B-Reezy due to Saints and Bills Picks. If these two teams win, Woody reaches 41 points — 1 more point than Craft Brew can earn with a 21-point Trifecta. But, Craft Brew owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with B-Reezy (Leg 1) so he would move up to Place if no other Analyst reaches 40 or more points. He can also try a craft-y change of Picks for a unique set to score a 16-point Trifecta and hope that no other Analyst does better than 34 points total.
Jimmy V and Roxy Trot are fully Boxed Out by Woody. Jimmy V can Place by trailing Woody if no other Analyst earns 39 points, or Roxy Trot can place if no other Analyst earns 38 points (including Jimmy V who would have to change at least one Pick). If either switch one Pick to avoid the Box Out for a 16-point Trifecta, they can reach 34 or 33 points and hope that no leading Analyst gets a *lame* Trifecta with Fibonacci bonuses.
The Strategist is partially Boxed Out by KateTDid (Colts and Bills). At best, she can Place with the same three Picks. If she changes one Pick to make a unique set and go for 31 points total, she will need every Analyst ahead of her to bust Trifectas this week or no other Analyst to finish higher than 30 points for the Win.
Atwork has a unique set of Picks that make it possible for him to reach 31 points total. He also will need all leading Analysts to bust Trifectas or no other Analyst to finish higher than 30 points for the Win.
Little Tuna also has a unique set of Picks that can take her to 28 points total and add 1 more Correct Home Team Pick. If all other Analysts bust or finish no better than 27 points, she has the outside chance to force a tiebreaker with Sponge Mom and Woody in her favor for the Win (we think Sponge Mom would have to miss at least two Fibonacci Picks, including the 49ers, for that to happen).
Analyst of the Year | Eliminations
Analysts have to be within 4 Trifectas of Jimmy V to remain in the Marathon of the Ass in Week 14.
If Jimmy V earns another Trifecta, a) Big Tuna, Sponge Mom, and Woody must also earn a Trifecta to remain in the Race for the Win and b) Wise Orangutan and Little Tuna are eliminated for the Win.
If Jimmy V‘s Trifecta busts, Wise Orangutan and Little Tuna must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Win.
Currently, The Strategist, The Bookie, and KateTDid are tied for first place with 15 points. All three Analysts can make the same three Picks this week for +15 points or 30 points total.
Scenarios
If one or more of the current leaders reaches 30 points, Little Tuna, Roxy Trot, and Atwork will have to earn at least 3 points (*lame* Trifecta) to remain in the Race for the Win in Leg 5.
No other Analysts are at risk of falling 21 points behind the current leaders.
Scenarios | Analyst of the Year VI
Atwork and Jimmy V have a 5 Trifecta lead over The Strategist, KateTDid, and Wise Orangutan with six weeks to go in the season.
If either Atwork or Jimmy V earns a Trifecta in Week 12, the three Analysts at the back of the field must also earn a Trifecta in Week 12 to remain in contention for the Win. If Both leaders earn a Trifecta, the three Analysts at the back of the field must also earn a Trifecta to remain in contention for place.
Standings after Leg 3 of Player Haters Preakness VI
Atwork has a 9-point lead (more than a *base* Trifecta) on his nearest challengers. B-Reezy and The Bookie currently have a 3-to-6 point lead on most of the field for Place.
The Slate of Games in Leg 4 presents two problems. First, there are only 4 games featuring un-Claimed teams so a Player Haters Trifecta for 12- or 18- points will be less likely. But also, with four head-to-head games and eight games total, a *lame* Trifecta for 3 points may be more difficult for the leaders.
Scenarios
Eighteen points is the maximum possible in a Leg of the Player Haters Preakness, and that is only possible with 3 Player Hater Picks.
For the Win: The Strategist and KateTDid are eliminated.
Atwork is in a strong position due to the Slate of Games and his 9-point lead with 3 Correct Home Team Picks. He can eliminate all Analysts with a 12-point Trifecta (2 Player Haters), but a *lame* Trifecta for 3 points is almost as unbeatable due to Atwork‘s tiebreaker advantages. Only B-Reezy, The Bookie, Craft Brew* and Roxy Trot* can best him and only with a Perfect Player Haters Trifecta (18 points) if he earns 3 points. [*The Packers must lose to the Chiefs in Leg 4 for either to have a possibility to win on tiebreakers.]
If Atwork earns 0 points this week, then…B-Reezy and The Bookie can Win with a 12-point Player Haters Trifecta (two Haters). Craft Brew needs a 12-point Player Haters Trifecta AND the Chiefs to beat the Packers. All other Analysts with 6 points require a Perfect Players Haters Trifecta (18 points) to Win.
For the Place: No Analyst is eliminated.
Atwork is assured of a Place unless two or more Analysts earn Player Haters Trifectas (see above). Otherwise, The Bookie and B-Reezy have the inside rail, while Craft Brew and Roxy Trot have the outside rail. The Bookie currently has the tiebreaker advantage, so she only needs to outscore B-Reezy AND hold onto her tiebreaker advantage (+1 Correct Home Team Pick). B-Reezy needs to outscore The Bookie OR tie her with Correct Home Team Picks (+1) while holding onto the third tiebreaker advantage (turnovers per game played). Craft Brew needs to outscore both by at least 3 more points in order to Place outright or to force a photo finish on tiebreakers (Correct Home Team Picks or turnovers per game played).
The rest of the field needs to overcome the 6+ point lead currently held by B-Reezy and The Bookie. If either scores any points or Craft Brew scores 6+ points, that will require a 12-to-18 point Player Haters Trifecta.
If the these three front running Analysts fail to score more than 12 points total after Leg 4, Place may come down to a photo finish on tiebreakers. A few Analysts have head-to-head advantages over particular Analysts in the event of a tie (first tiebreaker, see full Standings). Otherwise, a photo finish favors Roxy Trot who has the strongest tiebreaker record (3 Correct Home Team Picks and 4.0 turnovers per game played). Several other Analysts have 1 Correct Home Team Pick to their advantage and can add to that this week. The Strategist has the strongest position for third tiebreaker [5.0 turnovers per game played] heading into Leg 4. Tiebreakers are subject to change after Leg 4 games based on head-to-head outcomes, Picks, and turnovers forced by Home Teams.
Standings after Leg 2 of Player Haters Preakness VI
Atwork has a 9-point lead (more than a *base* Trifecta) on his nearest challengers. Currently, three Analyst trail him by 15 points and 2 Correct Home Team Picks. As always, full or partial Box Outs may be likely in the final two legs!
Scenarios
Eighteen points is the maximum possible in a Leg of the Player Haters Preakness, and that is only possible with 3 Player Hater Picks. With tiebreakers and a 9-point lead, the following are the risks of elimination for each Analyst if Atwork earns a *lame* Trifecta or better AND remains 2 Correct Home Team Picks ahead:
For the Win:Atwork can eliminate The Strategist, Jimmy V, and KateTDid if he scores 3 or more points than they do this week. Likewise, Atwork can eliminate Craft Brew, Big Tuna, Little Tuna, and Sponge Mom if he scores 6 or more points than they score this week. Roxy Trot and Woody have at least 1 Correct Home Team Pick, so Atwork may need a combination of 6 or more points AND 1 more Correct Home Team Pick to eliminate either. B-Reezy, Wise Orangutan, and The Bookie are safe unless Atwork earns a Player Haters Trifecta (12 or more points).
For the Place: Currently, the race for second is wide open since the leaders are separated from the back of the field by only 6 points.
Roxy Trot (34 points) remains in first place, but followed closely by Craft Brew (32 points). Only Little Tuna (24), Atwork (24), Jimmy V (21), and The Bookie (21) can overtake the two leaders for the Win. Big Tuna (16) can catch Craft Brew for the Place.
B-Reezy (13), Wise Orangutan (9), Sponge Mom (12), Woody (13), and KateTDid (14) are eliminated from the Purse, but can still earn a Show.
The Strategist (6) is eliminated from The Winner’s Circle.
Scenarios
There are 17 points possible in the final Leg if an Analyst hits the *base* Trifecta PLUS all *bonus* points. Even if one of the trailing Analysts earn those points, Roxy Trot or Craft Brew may take the Win with a *base* Trifecta.
For Win or Place:
If Roxy Trot earns a *base* Trifecta with her Home Team OR takes the *Offense bonus* points, she will have at least 41 points, enough to eliminate all but Craft Brew. A *lame* Trifecta for 3 to 4 points may be enough for the Win or Place if Craft Brew also fades down the stretch and no Analyst earns 14+ points (*base* Trifecta plus *Offense bonus*).
Craft Brew is in a similar position if he overtakes Roxy Trot, but he needs a *base* Trifecta and *Defense bonus* points to score enough (42) to eliminate the trailing Analysts for the Win or the Place. Any score less than 42 points is vulnerable to Little Tuna and Atwork, while any score less than 38 points is also open to Jimmy V and The Bookie.
Little Tuna and Atwork trail the leader by 10 points, so they need the *base* Trifecta and *Defense bonus* OR the *lame* Trifecta and *Offense bonus* points at a minimum. The *base* Trifecta plus both *Offense* and *Defense* bonus points will take them to 41 points, enough for Place if Craft Brew does not ALSO tie for either of those bonuses.
Jimmy V and The Bookie likely will need the max 17 points to have a comfortable chance at Place or Win. If Craft Brew or Roxy Trot fail to score any points, then a *base* Trifecta and *Offense bonus* points (14 total) may be enough for Place at the least.
Big Tuna cannot take the Win. He has an outside chance to Place if the leaders falter down the final stretch AND he alone earns the *bonuses* for 17 total points. He will reach 33 points and edge one length ahead of Craft Brew.
Roxy Trot has a 6 point lead (*base* Trifecta) on her nearest challenger. Currently, five Analyst trail her by more than 17 points (maximum possible in a single week).
Box Out
A Box Out occurs when one Analyst selects the same teams to win as an Analyst with fewer points. Both Analysts earn a Trifecta together or bust together, thus, the Analyst in the lead boxes out the challenger and may hold the lead regardless of the Picks outcome. Box Outs may occur in full (three Picks) or in part (one or two Picks). For instance, if two Analysts have two Picks in common, and both Teams from the different Picks win, then the front-running Analyst Boxes Out the trailing Analyst because both win or lose together on the two common Picks. In other words, Analysts playing for one of the four Crowns need to consider which teams the Analyst(s) in the lead may Pick to win in the final Legs.
In the PC-Fecta Derby, a Box Out can be beaten if an Analyst’s Home Team earns the Offense and/or Defense bonus points. If that should be the case, the trailing Analyst nets an extra 3 to 10 points more than the leading Analyst despite having the exact same Picks.
Scenarios
There are 34 points possible in the final two Legs provided that an Analyst hits the *base* Trifecta PLUS all *bonus* points. If there are no ties for best offense or defense, as usually happens, only one Analyst can earn the maximum points possible. This means that the Analysts who do not earn Trifectas or *bonus* points will be eliminated For the Win starting in Leg 3.
For the Win: Roxy Trot can eliminate all Analysts except Craft Brew and Atwork if she earns both the Offense and Defense *bonus* points in Leg 3. Alternatively, all Analysts not within 17 points of Roxy Trot after Leg 3 will be eliminated. The five Analysts currently 18+ points behind likely have to earn Offense or Defense *bonus* points to be in contention for the Win in Leg 4. Typically, as only one Analyst earns each type of *bonus* points, at least three of these Analysts likely will be eliminated from the Win in Leg 3. The Analysts in the middle of the field (i.e., currently within 17 points of the leader) will need to match or beat Roxy Trot’s pace (*lame* or *base* Trifecta) to stay within 17 points after Leg 3. If she hits a Trifecta in Leg 3, the challengers must also earn Offense or Defense *bonus* points to make ground on the leader.
For the Place: Craft Brew (21) currently holds Place, but he does not lead any Analyst by more than 17 points after Leg 2. Six Analysts are within 4 to 11 points of Place. Thus, all Analysts remain in contention for Place and several are in good positions. If most Analysts continue to earn *lame* or *base* Trifectas (as has happened in the first two Legs), an Analyst will likely need to earn 7-10 *bonus* points during the final two Legs to Place.
Into the final stretch, B-Reezy has a one length lead over Sponge Mom and Wise Orangutan. Seven other Analysts are within 3 Trifecta points and all Analysts are within 7 points. This week, a base Trifecta is worth 5 points and 3 Fibonacci bonus points are possible — or 8 points total. We are looking at another photo finish!
We are not able to consider all possible scenarios, so we will note the strengths and weakness of each Analyst for the Win based on last week’s Picks and Tiebreakers. If a trailing Analyst takes the same Picks as an Analyst with a lead, the trailing Analyst is Boxed Out for the Win, but still may Place if others do not earn more Trifecta points. It is feasible to chase a leader in order to Place if others falter down the home stretch.
Scenarios
For the Win:
1 B-Reezy (7 points): Bears/Saints/Eagles from last week are unique Picks. If he carries them forward for 8 points, he wins outright (no tiebreakers). If he ends in a tie with other Analysts, Craft Brew has a head-to-head advantage. B-Reezy has only 1 Correct Home Team Pick, so Analysts with 2 or more Correct Picks may best him on tiebreakers. But, he has 5 Fibonacci bonus Picks, second only to three other Analysts.
2 Sponge Mom (6 points): Bears/Saints/Chargers from last week are unique Picks. If she carries them forward for 8 points, she is assured to take Place (on tiebreakers over Wise O.) — or Win if B-Reezy fades. With 4 Correct Home Team Picks and 6 Fibonacci Bonus Picks, she currently owns the tiebreakers over most Analysts if the Race ends in a tie for first at 11 to 13 points.
3 Wise Orangutan (6 points): Bears/Saints/Vikings from last week are unique Picks. He has head-to-head tiebreakers over Atwork and The Strategist, but he has 0 Correct Home Team Picks and only 2 Fibonacci Bonus Picks — a poor tiebreaker portfolio.
4 Little Tuna (5 points): Chargers/Steelers/Saints from last week are NOT unique Picks (Big Tuna). She does not have a natural Box Out, however, because the Chargers play the Steelers this week. She will have to change at least one Pick to earn at most 7 total points. She has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Wise O. and competes against The Bookie this week. She also has a respectable 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 6 Fibonacci Bonus Picks.
5 Roxy Trot (5 points): Bears/Saints/Patriots from last week are NOT unique Picks. She can Box Out Craft Brew and Jimmy V with the same Picks. Big Tuna has a head-to-head tiebreaker over her. She has 0 Correct Home Team Picks and 4 Fibonacci Bonus Picks, so she likely has to win outright and avoid tiebreakers.
6 The Bookie (4 points): Steelers/Bears/Packers from last week are not unique Picks (Atwork). She currently owns tiebreakers over the other Analysts with 4 Trifecta points. She also has a head-to-head tiebreaker over The Strategist and hosts Little Tuna in Pittsburgh this week. She has a respectable 3 Correct Home Team Picks and 6 Fibonacci Bonus Picks.
7 Jimmy V (4 points): Patriots/Bears/Saints from last week are NOT unique Picks. With the same Picks, Roxy Trot can Box him Out [see above], while he can Box Out Craft Brew. He has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Atwork. He has 2 Correct Home Team Picks and 2 Fibonacci Bonus Picks.
8 The Strategist (4 points): Panthers/Saints/Chargers from last week are unique Picks. The Bookie and Wise O. have head-to-head tiebreakers over her. She has 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 4 Fibonacci Bonus Picks.
9 Craft Brew (4 points): Bears/Saints/Patriots from last week are NOT unique Picks (Roxy Trot [see above], Jimmy V [see above]). Big Tuna has a head-to-head tiebreaker over him. He has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Wise O. and B-Reezy. He has 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 2 Fibonacci Bonus Picks.
10 Big Tuna (0 points): Chargers/Steelers/Saints from last week are NOT unique Picks (Little Tuna [see above]. Chargers play the Steelers this week so he has to change at least one Pick to earn at most 7 total points. Big Tuna has head-to-head tiebreakers over Craft Brew and Roxy Trot. He also has 4 Correct Home Team Picks and 6 Fibonacci Bonus Picks. With his tiebreaker portfolio, he can Win if he ends in a tie for first place with B-Reezy at 7 points.
11 Atwork (0 points): Packers/Bears/Steelers from last week are NOT unique Picks (The Bookie [see above]). Jimmy V and Wise O. have head-to-head tiebreakers over him. He has 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 3 Fibonacci Bonus Picks. He can Win, but only if 1) he does not have the same Picks as The Bookie, 2) he earns 2 Fibonacci Bonus Points including the Packers, 2) all other Analysts fail to get a Trifecta, and 3) B-Reezy does not earn a Correct Home Team Pick or any more Fibonacci Bonus Picks.
Standings after Leg 3 of Player Haters Preakness V
Into the homestretch, Big Tuna has a two length lead over Craft Brew and Wise Orangutan. Analysts with 1 Trifecta point can catch Big with a perfect Player Haters Trifecta. Analysts with 0 points are not able to catch Big Tuna.
Scenarios
For the Win:
Big Tuna will eliminate all Analysts with a 2 point Trifecta (two Player Haters). A 1 point Trifecta eliminates all but Craft Brew and Wise Orangutan. He can also strengthen his position against most Analysts with a Correct Home Team Pick.
With 3 Correct Home Team Picks, Craft Brew is in position to best Big Tuna if he can tie Big Tuna at 4 or 5 points. Most Analysts will need Craft Brew to falter in the homestretch to clinch the Win.
Wise O. can force a photo finish on tiebreakers with a 2-point Trifecta. The Strategist, Roxy Trot, and B-Reezy will need to play for a Perfect Player Haters Trifecta to Win.
For the Place:
All Analysts are still in contention to place if no Analysts tie Big Tuna on points, but most Analysts must avoid a tiebreaker with Craft Brew. If Craft Brew earns points, then he strengthens his position. If Big Tuna holds onto his lead (and does not fall to second place) and Craft Brew falters, then:
The two exceptions are 1) Atwork whose Home Team can beat Craft Brew’s in a head-to-head competition this week so he only needs a 2-point Trifecta with a Packers victory and 2) The Strategist who can play for a tie with Craft Brew if she earns one more Correct Home Team Pick with the Panthers and Craft Brew does not.
All other Analysts must outscore Craft Brew with 3 or more points to Place over Craft Brew.
Wise Orangutan is a wildcard in both Win and Place scenarios. He can hold win, place, or show with a 3-point Trifecta or with a 2-point Trifecta and tiebreakers if the current leaders falter. Analysts seeking to come from behind for the Place also must hope that Wise O. does not earn a 1-point Trifecta with a Correct Home Team Pick.
