Current Standings | PC-Fecta Derby VIII
Headed into the homestretch, half of the field has been eliminated by the front-runner, Sponge Mom! But, her path to her first Win is not written in hoof prints…She must fend off her final challengers to the wire!!!
Scenarios
Seventeen points are the maximum possible in a Leg of the PC-Fecta Derby — a *base* Trifecta (6), an *extra* point (1) for including the Home Team, defensive *PC-Fecta* points (3) for the best Home Team points allowed, and offensive *PC-Fecta* points (7) for the best Home Team points scored.
All references to an *extra* point infers the Analyst Picked his or her Home Team to Win! There are NO scenarios in which an Analyst currently trailing Sponge Mom can Win PC-Fecta Derby VIII without Picking his or her Home Team to Win.
Scenarios cannot take into account all situations in which two or more Analysts earn the same PC-Fecta *bonus* points (defensive or offensive). This does not happen too often, but please see the Disclaimer below!
For The Win:
Sponge Mom leads by 7 points over her closest challenger, Roxy Trot. If she earns a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and either *PC-Fecta* points (+3 or +7), she Wins the Race going away at 41 to 48 points. Roxy Trot could at best tie her at 41 points with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* but Sponge Mom would Win on second tiebreaker (4 Correct Home Team Picks).
If Sponge Mom earns a *lame* Trifecta, *extra* point, and the offensive *PC-Fecta* points (+7) to reach 42 points, she Wins. If she earns a *lame* Trifecta, *extra* point, and the defensive *PC-Fecta* points (+3) to reach 38 points, Roxy Trot can Win with all 17 points — which means the Bills and Rams both would have to hold their opponents to the lowest points allowed (an unlikely situation). If Roxy Trot ties her at 38 with a *base* Trifecta and the offensive *PC-Fecta*, Sponge Mom would again Win on second tiebreaker (4 Correct Home Team Picks).
If Sponge Mom earns a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point and NO *PC-Fectas to reach 38 points, only Roxy Trot can challenge for the Win by earning a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* (+10) to reach 41 points. Offensive *PC-Fecta* alone is not enough for Roxy Trot because she will again reach 38 points and lose on second tiebreaker. Likewise, Wise Orangutan loses on second tiebreaker to Sponge Mom if he also reaches 38 points with the full +17 points possible in a single week.
If Sponge Mom earns a *base* Trifecta with NO *extra* point, she reaches 37 points. OR, if Sponge Mom earns a *lame* Trifecta with an *extra* point, she reaches 35 points. In both cases, Roxy Trot must have a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* (+7) at 38 points. Wise Orangutan can Win by earning a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* (+10) to total 38 points.
If Sponge Mom earns a *lame* Trifecta without an *extra* point, she reaches 34 points. In that case, Roxy Trot can Win with a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* (+7) at 38 points OR Roxy Trot can Win with a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and defensive *PC-Fecta* (+3) at 34 points on third tiebreaker (Bills currently have the better point differential per game over the Rams). Wise Orangutan can Win by earning a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* (+7) to total 35 points (note: at best, Roxy Trot could reach 34 points with the defensive PC-Fecta).
If Sponge Mom fails to earn a *lame* Trifecta in Leg 4 (+0 points), she ends with 31 points and things get really interesting!!! Again, every remaining Win Scenario implies the listed Analyst (Correctly!) Picked his or her Home Team to Win. So, the Scenario for each contending Analyst is…
- Roxy Trot has the inside rail. She needs the offensive *PC-Fecta* to Win going away, or the defensive *PC-Fecta* to eliminate every Analyst but Wise Orangutan (see below). If she earns the *base* Trifecta and *extra* point to tie Sponge Mom at 31 points, then Wise Orangutan or The Strategist can Win outright with a better total, or tiebreakers may determine the outcome between Sponge Mom, Roxy Trot, Wise Orangutan, or Jimmy V (see below). The Bills currently have the best point differential per game (+16.7).
- Wise Orangutan can best both Sponge Mom and Roxy Trot with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* at 35 points. If he reaches 31 points with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and defensive *PC-Fecta*, he will likely lose to at least one other Analyst at 31 points based on third tiebreaker (Ravens have a -1.0 point differential per game).
- The Strategist needs a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 33 points. The Strategist can not tie any leader to send the outcome to tiebreakers so she needs all 17 points to remain in contention.
- Jimmy V is the wildcard in the final stretch. His Cardinals face Sponge Mom‘s Rams, so his Home Team can block Sponge Mom from earning one Correct Pick and any *bonus* points, plus he also nets 3 Correct Home Team Picks to equal Sponge Mom on second tiebreaker. So, if he earns a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 31 points, the Derby can end in a tie with Sponge Mom and and (possibly) Roxy Trot. The Cardinals currently have the second best point differential per game (+12.7) and will have stopped the Rams from improving — only the Bills could best the Cardinals’ point differential per game in that scenario! (See Disclaimer!)
- Woody can earn a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 31 points, ending the Derby in a tie with Sponge Mom and (possibly) Roxy Trot. The Browns (+8.7) currently trail both the Bills and Rams in point differential per game, but anything can happen on any give Sunday! (See Disclaimer!)
- Little Tuna can earn a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 31 points, ending the Derby in a tie with Sponge Mom and (possibly) Roxy Trot. The Titans (-4.3) currently trail both the Bills and Rams in point differential per game, so they have to erase a 15 to 20 point per game deficit for her to Win on tiebreakers — that does not happen on many given Sundays! (See Disclaimer!)
Disclaimer For the Win:
There is a scenario in which no Analyst does better than 31 points and the Derby ends in a four-to-six way tie. Roxy Trot, Wise Orangutan, Jimmy V, Woody, and Little Tuna can all reach 31 points to tie Sponge Mom if every one of their Home Teams Wins and two or more of those Analysts share the PC-Fecta *bonus* points in certain ways. We cannot really project those scenarios, so the order of the For the Win Scenarios reflects the relative strength of the Analysts’ current positions!
For The Place:
There are far too many possibilities to go into detail. However, an Analyst must be within 17 points of Roxy Trot at 24 points to be in contention. This means that Atwork and Mo Money have been eliminated from Purse. All Analysts mentioned above For the Win have a variety of scenarios. All Analysts heretofore unmentioned will need the offensive or both *PC-Fecta* points to Place.
And ditto on the Disclaimer regarding Place!!
