Current Standings | Fibonacci Stakes VII
Headed into the home stretch, Wise Orangutan (33 points) has only a three-length lead over Craft Brew, Sponge Mom, and Woody (30 points each). The complete Standings are here.
Leg 5 may award up to 21 points (6 *base* plus 5 *bonus* per Fibonacci Pick). All Analysts are within 21 points of the leader after Leg 4, so technically all are within striking distance of the Win. But…Bye Weeks (Buccaneers) and Box Outs may diminish a few Analysts’ chances.
Scenarios
Scenarios are discussed by (Current Place) Analyst – Current Points (Leg 4 Picks) in the order of current standings. Aside from the current leader, we largely consider outcomes based on *base* Trifectas — the possible outcomes for *lame* Trifectas is too complicated for us to fathom! Also, we are not able to take into account if you are one of the Analysts in strong contention to Win (or to finish in last place!) in the Analyst of the Year, so would rather Pick with that Race in mind.
(1) Wise Orangutan – 33 Points (Browns/Bills/Packers):
A unique set of Picks. If he goes for the same three teams, he will hold his lead if all three Win. If only two Win or if he changes even one team, he can be overtaken by Analysts with 28+ points. If he changes two teams, he can be overtaken by Analysts with 20+ points even if every team Wins. On the other hand, if he earns at least 3 points, Analysts with 14 or fewer points are eliminated from the Win. If he earns at least 8 points (*lame* Trifecta with one Fibonacci Pick), Analysts with 19 or fewer points are eliminated from the Win.
(2) Woody – 30 points (Seahawks/Packers/Steelers)
A unique set of Picks – Wise O. cannot Box Out due to the +5 Fibonacci bonuses she can earn. She needs Wise O. to change at least one Pick OR to earn no better than a *lame* Trifecta. If she strategically changes even one Pick, she will be counting on Sponge Mom, Craft Brew, and The Strategist to earn less than the 21-point Trifecta. If she ties with Wise O. at 46 points or fewer, she can Win on tiebreakers provided that she keeps the Seahawks for a third Correct Home Team Pick. She currently has tiebreakers over her closest competitors: Sponge Mom, Craft Brew, and The Strategist.
(3) Sponge Mom – 30 points (Seahawks/Packers/Steelers)
Boxed Out by Woody (same three Picks). Also, she must score more than 3 points to avoid a tie with Wise O. (to which she loses on tiebreakers). In order for Sponge Mom to Win, her best hope is to change one Pick, earn the 16-point *base* Trifecta, and then root for Wise O., Woody, Craft Brew, and The Strategist to finish with less than 46 points. If she earns partial points (*lame* Trifecta) and ties with Wise O., Woody, or The Strategist she will lose on second tiebreaker. If she ties Craft Brew, she needs to hold her tiebreaker advantage. If she ties Little Tuna, she currently prevails on first tiebreaker. Other tiebreakers with Analysts at 20 or fewer points are not considered. Lastly, she can also trail Woody with the same three Picks with the expectation to Place ($).
(4) Craft Brew – 30 points (Saints/Packers/Chiefs)
A unique set of Picks from those ahead of him (only Packers in common). He must score more than 3 points to avoid a tie with Wise O. If he sticks with the same three Picks and all Win, he will be counting on (Wise O.’s) Browns or Bills and (Woody’s) Seahawks or Steelers (forbid the thought!) to lose – or that those ahead of him change at least one Pick. If he changes one Pick, he may lose his advantage over The Strategist. If he changes two Picks (11-point Trifecta), he could expose himself to Big Tuna in a tie at 41 points.
(5) The Strategist – 28 points (Browns/Steelers/Packers)
A unique set of Picks. But she shares in common the Browns & Packers with Wise O. and the Packers & Steelers with with Woody and Sponge Mom. If she keeps the same three Picks, she is threading a needle to Win: the Bills must lose (Wise O.), the Seahawks must lose (Woody and Sponge Mom), and the Saints or Chiefs must lose (Craft Brew). She can change one Pick (for a 16-point Trifecta) and overtake the Analysts ahead of her if Wise O. busts and none of the other Analysts earn better than a *lame* Trifecta worth 13 points or fewer.
(6) Little Tuna – 24 points (Buccaneers/Titans/Steelers)
A unique set of Picks, but due to the Buccaneers Pick she can only earn 16 points (for 40 total). Also she likely cannot take the Seahawks or Packers since it gives Woody and/or Sponge Mom the Box Out (either will earn at least 13 point *lame* Trifectas if they keep the same teams). Titans gives her an advantage over Wise O. and The Strategist if either keeps the Browns (Browns @ Titans in Leg 5). So, she needs a wildcard to replace the Bucs and hope that no other Analysts scores more than 39 points because her tiebreaker portfolio is not strong: she loses on first tiebreaker to Sponge Mom and The Strategist, and has only 1 Correct Home Team Pick.
(7) Big Tuna – 20 points (Ravens/Packers/Saints)
A unique set of Picks, but partially Boxed Out by Craft Brew. If both Packers and Saints Win, Craft Brew reaches 43 points – more than the 41 Big Tuna can earn with the same three Picks. If he changes one Pick, his maximum total will be 36 points. In that case, he could change the Packers or Saints to a team that avoids a Box Out by the Analysts ahead of him (assuming all do not change Picks!). Also, none of the Analysts above can earn more than 35 points to avoid a decision on tiebreakers (his tiebreaker portfolio is a mixed bag…).
(8) B-Reezy – 19 points (Bears/Seahawks/Saints)
A unique set of Picks. He can reach 40 points with the same three Picks but needs nearly all Analysts above to finish at 39 points or fewer (busted Trifectas) due to a weak tiebreaker portfolio. Changing even one Pick limits his possible total to 35 points.
(9) KateTDid – 16 points (Titans/Buccaneers/Seahawks)
A unique set of Picks, but due to the Buccaneers Pick she can only earn 16 points for 32 total — one less than Wise O. currently has. She can still Place provided that she change the Bucs to a team not currently Picked by Woody, Sponge Mom and B-Reezy (due to Seahawks in common) or by Little Tuna (due to Titans in common).
(10) Roxy Trot – 15 points (Packers/Chiefs/Saints)
Boxed Out by Craft Brew (same three Picks). She can Place with the same three Picks if everyone ahead of her falters and Craft Brew Wins. If she changes even one Pick, the best she can do is Place at 31 points behind Wise O.
(11) Jimmy V – 14 points (Browns/Saints/Seahawks)
A unique set of Picks. The same three Picks can Win if every Analyst above him (except B-Reezy) fails to earn a *lame* Trifecta with their same three Picks. B-Reezy shares Saints and Seahawks in common, so Bears must lose (forbid the thought!) if Jimmy V is to overtake B-Reezy.
(12) Atwork – 12 points (Packers/Seahawks/Ravens)
Boxed Out for Win or Place by Woody and Sponge Mom (Seahawks and Packers in common). Changing even one Pick will limit his total to 28 points (currently fifth place).
(13) The Bookie – 12 points (Bills/Packers/Ravens)
Boxed Out for Win by Wise O. (Bills and Packers) and for Place by Big Tuna (Packers and Ravens). Changing even one Pick will limit her total to 28 points (currently fifth place).
