Current Standings | Fibonacci Stakes VI
Currently, Sponge Mom and Woody are tied for first place with 28 points each, and B-Reezy follows closely in third place with 27 points. All three Analysts can make the same three Picks this week.
A *base* Trifecta with three Fibonacci Bonuses is worth 21 points. A *lame* Trifecta with two Fibonacci Bonuses is worth 13 points. If any of the three leaders earn the *lame* Trifecta, the other Analysts will need to reach at least 40 or 41 points to challenge for the Win! If none earn a *lame* Trifecta, 29 points is the target for the Win.
Scenarios for the Win
Sponge Mom holds the tiebreakers over Woody so she can take the Crown with a 21-point *base* Trifecta. Woody obviously needs Sponge Mom to falter for her 21-point *base* Trifecta to Win, and B-Reezy needs both Sponge Mom and Woody to falter for his 21-point *base* Trifecta to Win.
Notably, the three leaders share two Picks in common with one another, so (a) if two of these Picks are incorrect, then only one will finish the home stretch with a *lame* Trifecta at 40 or 41 points, or (b) if one or more of the leaders change one Pick, then the most they can earn is a 16-point Trifecta for 43 to 44 points total.
Either scenario (a or b ) opens up opportunities for…
The Bookie (24) and KateTDid (24) who trail by only 4 points. Both also share two picks in common with the three leaders, so they need the Patriots to be one of the losers this week. They will need to keep the same three Picks to beat the leaders outright (more points, no tiebreakers)–plus KateTDid needs The Bookie‘s Saints Pick to lose for the Win. Wise Orangutan at 22 points can also take advantage of scenario a or b if he keeps his same three Picks because two of his Picks (Texans/Ravens) are the opponents of the leaders’ Picks (Patriots/49ers).
Craft Brew is partially Boxed Out by Woody and B-Reezy due to Saints and Bills Picks. If these two teams win, Woody reaches 41 points — 1 more point than Craft Brew can earn with a 21-point Trifecta. But, Craft Brew owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with B-Reezy (Leg 1) so he would move up to Place if no other Analyst reaches 40 or more points. He can also try a craft-y change of Picks for a unique set to score a 16-point Trifecta and hope that no other Analyst does better than 34 points total.
Jimmy V and Roxy Trot are fully Boxed Out by Woody. Jimmy V can Place by trailing Woody if no other Analyst earns 39 points, or Roxy Trot can place if no other Analyst earns 38 points (including Jimmy V who would have to change at least one Pick). If either switch one Pick to avoid the Box Out for a 16-point Trifecta, they can reach 34 or 33 points and hope that no leading Analyst gets a *lame* Trifecta with Fibonacci bonuses.
The Strategist is partially Boxed Out by KateTDid (Colts and Bills). At best, she can Place with the same three Picks. If she changes one Pick to make a unique set and go for 31 points total, she will need every Analyst ahead of her to bust Trifectas this week or no other Analyst to finish higher than 30 points for the Win.
Atwork has a unique set of Picks that make it possible for him to reach 31 points total. He also will need all leading Analysts to bust Trifectas or no other Analyst to finish higher than 30 points for the Win.
Little Tuna also has a unique set of Picks that can take her to 28 points total and add 1 more Correct Home Team Pick. If all other Analysts bust or finish no better than 27 points, she has the outside chance to force a tiebreaker with Sponge Mom and Woody in her favor for the Win (we think Sponge Mom would have to miss at least two Fibonacci Picks, including the 49ers, for that to happen).
Analyst of the Year | Eliminations
Analysts have to be within 4 Trifectas of Jimmy V to remain in the Marathon of the Ass in Week 14.
If Jimmy V earns another Trifecta, a) Big Tuna, Sponge Mom, and Woody must also earn a Trifecta to remain in the Race for the Win and b) Wise Orangutan and Little Tuna are eliminated for the Win.
If Jimmy V‘s Trifecta busts, Wise Orangutan and Little Tuna must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for the Win.
