Picks and Standings

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 14

Analyst of the Year II

Little Tuna re-establishes her lead with a trifecta in the 14th week of the year. Her 6th trifecta and 32nd pick of the year makes her a formidable opponent down the stretch.

With only three weeks left in the season, B-Reezy — the newcomer — and Minds Blank — 2014-15 Analyst of the Year — have been eliminated from the annual competition after earning only 2 trifectas in 14 weeks.

In second place, The Strategist now trails the leader by a full length. Little Tuna’s edge in correct picks (32 v. 29) means that The Strategist will have to make up modest ground in each leg of the Seeders’ Cup.

Big Tuna, in third place, and The Bookie, in fourth, remain in serious contention for the Analyst of the Year trophy, but both need a furious stretch to overtake Little Tuna by the final week.

Kal Krome, after an unprecedented three trifecta winning streak, has pulled even with the Wise Orangutan for fifth place. Both Analysts are on the outside looking in, but remain in contention for the annual award should the three leaders falter down the stretch.

In Week 14, if Little Tuna loses, Kal and Orangutan must earn a trifecta to stay within striking distance of Little Tuna. If Little Tuna earns a trifecta, Kal and Orangutan are automatically eliminated. Also, if the Big Tuna or The Bookie do not earn a trifecta, they are eliminated by a successful trifecta by Little Tuna.

In other words, flay (or fillet) Little Tuna!

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 14
Standings after Week 14 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 14
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 14 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

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Standings | Seeders Cup II | Leg 1

Seeders’ Cup, 2015-16

Standings after Leg 1

Little Tuna sprints to an early lead with 6 points in the Seeders’ Cup. Kal Krome holds sole possession of second after the first turn with 3 points.

The remaining Analysts were thrown by a bucking filly and finish in a tie for third place with no points after the first leg.

Trifecta Points

Standings | Seeders' Cup II | Leg 1
Standings after Leg 1 of the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup

Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers | Seeders' Cup II | Leg 1
Tiebreakers after Leg 1 of the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup

 

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Picks | Seeders’ Cup 2015 | Leg 1

The Picks:

The Bookie: Panthers/Packers/Broncos
The Big Tuna: Broncos/Panthers/Jets
The Little Tuna: Patriots/Panthers/Packers
Wise Orangutang: Jets/Broncos/Panthers
The Strategist: Panthers/Packers/Broncos
Kal Krome: Sea Hawks/Packers/Patriots
Minds Blank: Packers/Broncos/Patriots
B-Reezy: Bears/Panthers/Patriots

The Results:

The Bookie: Panthers/Packers/Broncos
The Big Tuna: Broncos/Panthers/Jets
The Little Tuna: Patriots/Panthers/Packers (6 points)
Wise Orangutang: Jets/Broncos/Panthers
The Strategist: Panthers/Packers/Broncos
Kal Krome: Sea Hawks/Packers/Patriots (3 points)
Minds Blank: Packers/Broncos/Patriots
B-Reezy: Bears/Panthers/Patriots

Notes:

Panthers clinched first round bye (3 seeder points)

Patriots clinched division title (2 seeder points)

 

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Seeders’ Cup II | Slate of Games

The Entrants

Headed into the final regular season race of the year, the Analysts opt to hold onto their horse senses. For  the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup, the entrants are:

Seeders' Cup II | Slate of Analysts
The Analysts and their Home Teams for the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup

Slate of Games

Seeders' Cup II | Slate of Games
The Slate of Games for the 2015-16 Seeders’ Cup

The slate of games for the Seeders’ Cup II includes only two head-to-head match-ups (again, the first tiebreaker) in Leg 3. In the early afternoon contest, Little Tuna and Wise Orangutan once again clash in the Seeders Cup. In the late afternoon contest, The Strategist sends her filly (or is it folly?) to challenge Kal Krome.

For the most part, the Analysts’ Home Teams are fighting their own demons to gain entry into the post season. Analysts have 8 games to select from each week except Leg 3 (6 games).

Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). Featured games may now be subject to broadcast flexing, but the Thursday night and Saturday game  will be played in Leg 2. Otherwise, the Analysts have until Saturdays to pick their seed favorites.

Several games un-sponsored steeds in playoff contention. Seeder points can be earned by picking the outsiders correctly. The Cardinals and Bengals currently lead their divisions, while the Steelers, Vikings, and Bills are in the playoff hunt.

Picks and Points

Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team  to win, but the second tiebreaker remains the number of correct Home Team selections. See the Seeders Cups rules for more.

The point value of a winning trifecta depends on the playoff clinching scenarios for each week. Look for the potential Seeder Points available in the game options each week. In Leg 1, the potential seeder points are:

Panthers (3) | Broncos (1, 2) | Patriots (1, 2)

Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Saturday, December 12.

Resources

Check the current playoff standing of Home Teams.

Check the current playoff scenarios of Home Teams.

Check the ELO predictive model win strength of Home Teams.

Note on Strategy

The most points available in the Seeders’ Cup depends on who is in contention for seeding in the playoffs. The Panthers have already clinched their division, so nobody can earn playoff or division seeder points with the Panthers.

The Cardinals and the Bengals are also contending for bye week and home field advantages. If they clinch seeds off-list, then those points are not available.

Do not wait to the final week to make the big play in the Seeders’ Cup. Start strong, finish strong!

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Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 13

Analyst of the Year II

For the first time this year, five Analysts earn trifectas in the same week!

Little Tuna’s lead shrinks to only a 1/2 length after The Strategist moves into a tie with her fifth trifecta of the year. Little Tuna holds the edge in correct picks (29 v. 27), but her horse sense may be failing her down the stretch.

Moving into third place, Big Tuna leads The Bookie by a head. Both Analysts have 4 trifectas, but Big leads with one more correct pick (26 v. 25).

After an 8-week hiatus, Wise Orangutan gains a third trifecta and holds off the Analysts charging from the back of the pack.

Gaining her first trifecta in 10 weeks, Minds Blank keeps a slim lead with her 2nd trifecta and 25th correct pick.

Kal Krome charges hard over the past two weeks to tie B-Reezy for seventh place with 2 trifectas and 23 correct picks.

Heading into the final month, all eight Analysts remain in contention for the Analyst of the Year Trophy, but three now face elimination in the coming week!

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 13
Standings after Week 13 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 13
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 13 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

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Standings | Fibonacci Stakes II | Final Results

Fibonacci Stakes, 2015-16

Final Standings

Another come from behind victory in the Fibonacci Stakes!

Heading into the final leg, The Bookie and B-Reezy were in fierce competition for first place. The Bookie stuck with the same three teams in Leg 5 to hold off the competition with 8 more points. B-Reezy changed one selection to include the Vikings in head-to-head competition with the Hawks for 7 more points. Kal Krome, who trailed The Bookie and B-Reezy by one length and needed help to overtake the leaders, changed two picks and rode for only 6 more points.

After the Patriots spill against Eagles and the Bears failure to kick enough dirt to hold off the 49ers, Kal Krome sprinted from the outside to take first place with 11 points!

Closing strong in the final leg, Minds Blank rode her Packers to 8 points to take 2nd place (based on second tiebreaker). The Strategist also held her teams in Leg 5 to finish with 8 points and third place (based on third tiebreaker). Big Tuna, sticking with his three teams, also finished strong with 8 points and fourth place.

Wise Orangutan lumbered into 5th place with 7 points. The Bookie and B-Reezy, winded in the final stretch, finish in 6th and 7th place, respectively.

Ah, Little Tuna…. What can we say. An 8th place finish after her dastardly Patriots collapse on special teams play. If only Tom Terrific could play defense and special teams…. No, wait, he threw a hundred yard pick-six and made one of the most awkward attempts at a tackle ever captured on film. Perhaps, next month!

Trifecta Points

Standings | Fibonacci StakesI II | Final Results
Final Results of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers | Fibonacci Stakes II | Final Results
Tiebreakers after the Final Leg of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

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Picks | Fibonacci Stakes 2015 | Leg 5

The Picks:

The Bookie: Panthers*/Patriots*/Packers* 3*
The Big Tuna: Panthers*/Jets*/Packers* 3*
The Little Tuna: Patriots*/Panthers*/Broncos 2*
Wise Orangutan: Sea Hawks*/Packers*/Cardinals 2*
The Strategist: Panthers*/Packers*/Sea Hawks* 3*
Kal Krome: Sea Hawks*/Packers/Cardinals 1*
Minds Blank: Packers*/Panthers*/Hawks* 3*
B-Reezy: Bears*/Panthers*/Vikings. 2*

* denotes same teams

Base trifecta worth 5 points.

The Results:

The Bookie: Panthers*/Patriots*/Packers*
The Big Tuna: Panthers*/Jets*/Packers* (8 points)
The Little Tuna: Patriots*/Panthers*/Broncos
Wise Orangutan: Sea Hawks*/Packers*/Cardinals (7 points)
The Strategist: Panthers*/Packers*/Sea Hawks* (8 points)
Kal Krome: Sea Hawks*/Packers/Cardinals (6 points)
Minds Blank: Packers*/Panthers*/Hawks* (8 points)
B-Reezy: Bears*/Panthers*/Vikings

* denotes same teams

 

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Scenarios | Analyst of the Year 2015-16 | Week 13

Week 13 Scenarios:

  1. If Little Tuna earns a trifecta in week 13, Minds Blank and Kal Krome must also win a trifecta in order to stay in contention.

 

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Scenarios | Fibonacci Stakes 2015 | Leg 5

Fibonacci Stakes Leg 5 Scenarios:

In the final calculations of the Fibonacci Stakes, all of the Analysts remain in contention for the winner’s circle. With 5 base trifecta points and 3 bonus trifecta points at stake in Leg 5, an Analyst can come from behind to win with 7 or 8 points.

Three leaders, however, have positioned themselves for the stretch run. Below are the most likely scenarios for the final turn of the Fibonacci Stakes:

  1. The Bookie holds the inside rail over B-Reezy and Kal Krome. If she goes for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4), she will reach 14 points and hold the tiebreaker over B-Reezy. If she goes for 7 points (2 of 3 same picks from Leg 4 including the Panthers), only B-Reezy can pass her with an 8 point trifecta. If she goes for 6 points, B-Reezy can pass her with a Bears-included trifecta or Kal Krome can overtake her with a 7 point trifecta.
  2. B-Reezy can run for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4) and distance himself from the other Analysts (except Bookie). With a 7 point trifecta including the Bears, B-Reezy will hold the edge over Kal Krome. If B-Reezy drops the Bears or goes for a 6 point trifecta (1 same team), then Kal Krome can overtake him with a Seahawks-led trifecta.
  3. Kal Krome’s best chance is for B-Reezy and The Bookie to falter while picking up a trifecta of any value. Having taken the Bengals last week, Kal can only notch 7 points in the final leg for a total of 12 points. Any trifecta combination, however, maintains his lead over all lower-positioned Analysts.
  4. Little Tuna, with 1 point currently, also took the Bengals last week. She may only earn 7 points to finish with 8 points. In a tie with other Analysts at 8 points, only Big Tuna can beat her (head-to-head tiebreaker due to Broncos over Pats). Otherwise, her 3 Home Team picks give her a comfortable lead over the other straggling Analysts.
  5. Big Tuna, Minds Blank,  and The Strategist are in position to carry the same three teams for 8 total points in the Stakes. None of these Analysts currently have a Home Team selection, so Minds Blank has a minor edge since she can take her Packers. Big Tuna and The Strategist did not take their Home Teams in Leg 4 and would sacrifice a trifecta point (for 7 possible total) if they make the switch to their Home Team in the final leg.
  6. Wise Orangutan needs a whole lotta losers in order to win the Stakes. Having picked the Bengals in Leg 4, Orangutan can finish with only 7 points total.
  7. In a tie for first place with 6 points, The Bookie and B-Reezy hold the edge over most other Analysts by virtue of Home Team selections and head-to-head wins. If the Panthers lose and Bears win, B-Reezy has an opportunity to overtake The Bookie in the final leg based on Bonus Picks (third tiebreaker).

So, if The Bookie, B-Reezy, and/or Kal Krome earn a trifecta, one of the three Analysts will win the Stakes. If the three leaders stumble, the advantages for the five laggards is roughly Little Tuna, Big Tuna/Minds Blank/The Strategist (depending on picks), and lastly the Orangutan.

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Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 12

Analyst of the Year II

Quite a bit of movement this week in the Analyst of the Year award.

In first, Little Tuna continues to hold a one length lead over The Strategist and The Bookie. With only one correct pick in week 12, The Bookie falls behind the The Strategist by a nose into third place.

Big Tuna holds onto fourth place by a length, but B-Reezy is closing fast after moving from 7th to 5th place. Wise Orangutan continues to fall behind and now holds 6th place.

Kal saved his season with a trifecta in week 12, keeping himself in mathematically in the race for Analyst of the Year. But, with only one trifecta each, Minds Blank and Kal Krome face elimination by Little Tuna who leads them by 4 trifectas with only 5 weeks to go!

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 12
Standings after Week 12 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 12
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 12 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

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