Category: Super Trifecta Bowl

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games

With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:

Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team, but do not have to pick that game.

As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:

Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)

Trifecta Points

A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional round for all Analysts.

Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Divisional round will earn 2 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).

Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Divisional round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).

In the Divisional Round, there are no Player Hater points possible (the two un-owned teams remaining play each other this week).

The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Texans (3 points), Steelers (1 point), Packers (3 points), and Seahawks (1 point).

NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 2 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible). If The Bookie does not include the Packers in her trifecta picks, a victory by the Packers will yield only the Playoff Victory point (2 total).

Upset Probabilities

Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.

Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.

Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games

With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:

Analysts may pick from any of the four games. Analysts with one of the top two seeds in each conference are free to pick any of the eight teams to win. Analysts with a team in the Wildcard round may not pick against their Home Team.

As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:

Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)

Trifecta Points

A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 3 points in the Wildcard round for all Analysts.

Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Wildcard round will earn 1 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins (NOTE: Analysts do not have to pick their Home Team in the trifecta to earn the Playoff Victory point).

Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Wildcard round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).

In the Wildcard Round, 1 Player Hater point can be earned for correctly picking the Texans to beat Big Tuna’s Raiders, the Dolphins to beat The Strategist’s Steelers, or the Giants to beat The Bookie’s Opposite-of-Chicago.

The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win: Dolphins (3 points), Raiders (1 point), Lions (3 points), and Giants (1 point).

NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Lions to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points (3 total). If B-Reezy correctly picks the Lions to win, he earns 3 Seeder Redux points, 1 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (7 total possible). If B-Reezy does not include the Lions in his trifecta picks, a victory by the Lions will yield only the Playoff Victory point (1 total).

Strategery

As we – the Clearinghouse and The Bookie – have invested money, time, and thought in our research to devise the best possible test of predictive skill, we must point out several considerations for the point system in place since last year:

1) Points in the early rounds are integral. If a Home Team is eliminated in the Wildcard or Divisional round, the Analyst will not be able to earn Playoff Victory or Reverse PCFecta points in later rounds. And, the base trifecta points for picking three correctly goes down each week.
2) Head-to-head competitions will make or break the Analysts strategy. For the second year in a row, Kal Krome and B-Reezy face each other in the wildcard round!
3) If an Analyst’s Home Team falters, be a proud player hater. New England is unowned! The other three un-owned teams are low seeds (3+) and yield Player Hater points plus Seeder Redux points with each correct pick to win.

In other words, it is not the Horse the Analyst rides in, but the Horse the Analyst rides out that may win the Trophy!

Upset Probabilities

Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.

In the first year of the World Football Trifecta League, only 2 away teams upset their hosts (20%) – the lowest upset rate of the past 13 years. The Ravens upset the Steelers in the Wildcard round and the Colts upset the Broncos in the Divisional round. Three away teams lost close games on questionable officiating calls: Lions to Cowboys (flag|no flag), Cowboys to Packers (catch|no catch), and Ravens to Patriots (legal formation|illegal formation). In the Championship round, the Packers gave away the NFC Championship to the Seahawks with an onside recovery. It could have been 6 away team wins just as easily as it was 2.

Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.