The Analysts’ Picks Are In:
The Pick Results Are In:
PC-Fecta Points (Divisional):
Eagles | Defensive PC-Fecta | 2 points
Patriots | Offensive PC-Fecta | 1 point
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl IV | Divisional Round
Category: Super Trifecta Bowl
World Football Trifecta Championship 2017-18
Super Trifecta Bowl IV
Slate of Games | Divisional Round
The Slate of Games for the divisional round are (in center column):
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 2 points in the Divisional round for all Analysts.
A Home Team win is worth 2 Playoff Victory points. It is not necessary to pick the Home Team to win.
If an Analyst correctly picks his or her Home Team to win in the Divisional round, he or she may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team). Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are not eligible for PCFecta points in the division round.
In the AFC, the Titans are un-owned and will earn 2 Player Hater points as well as 4 Seeder Redux points if correctly selected to beat the Patriots (6 total). The Jaguars are un-owned and will earn 2 Player Hater points and 1 Seeder Redux point if correctly selected to beat the Steelers (3 total). These points are awarded with a Correct Pick and do not require a Trifecta.
In the NFC, all teams are owned so no Player Hater points are possible. The Falcons will award 5 Seeder Redux points in an upset of the Eagles and the Saints will award 2 Seeder Redux points in an upset of the Vikings. These points are awarded with a Correct Pick and do not require a Trifecta.
Note: If an Analyst’s Home Team has been eliminated, the only path to victory is to pick the NFC correctly PLUS pick one or both of the un-owned teams in the AFC (and hope they win!).
Useful links:
Super Trifecta Bowl rules: http://www.roi2partners.com/wftl/superfecta-bowl/
Last year, the Patriots were un-owned and The Bookie beat Atwork when the un-owned team won The Game Which Shall Not Be Named.
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl IV | Wildcard Round
Super Trifecta Bowl IV
Wise Orangutan takes an early one length lead (6 points) over the Tunas (5 points each). All three took the Falcons to win over the Rams for 3 Seeder Redux points. Wise O. and Big Tuna earned 1 Playoff Victory points and Reverse PC-Fecta points: Wise O., defense (2), and Big Tuna, offense (1). Little Tuna picked 1 additional Seeder Redux and 1 Player Hater point with the Titans upset of the Chiefs.
The rest of the field struggled to leave the gates as 3 Home Teams fell in the wildcard round. B-Reezy, The Bookie, and The Strategist may have to ride the Haters to a Championship, while the top-seeded Analysts now have the advantage going into the Divisional Round.
Super Trifecta Standings
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl IV | Wildcard Round
The Analysts’ Picks Are In:
The Pick Results Are In:
PC-Fecta Points (Wildcard):
Falcons | Defensive PC-Fecta | 2 points
Saints | Offensive PC-Fecta | 1 point
World Football Trifecta Championship 2017-18
Super Trifecta Bowl IV
New Home Team Preparations
Kal Krome and Wise Orangutan had to pick new Home Teams as the Seahawks and Ravens failed to make the postseason. Kal Krome selects Vikings with the first pick and Wise O. selects Atlanta with the second pick.
The Home Teams for the Super Trifecta Bowl are:
Slate of Games Wildcard Round
The Slate of Games for the wildcard round are (at the left):
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 3 points in the Wildcard round for all Analysts.
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Wildcard round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team). The #1 and #2 seeds are not eligible for PCFecta points in the wildcard round.
In the AFC, the Titans are un-owned and will earn 1 Player Hater point as well as 1 Seeder Redux point if correctly selected to win over the Chiefs. Both the Bills and Jaguars are un-owned so no Player Hater points are possible. Correctly picking the Bills to upset the Jaguars will yield 3 Seeder Redux points.
In the NFC, all teams are owned so no Player Hater points are possible. The Falcons will award 3 Seeder Redux points in an upset of the Rams and the Panthers will earn 1 Seeder Redux point in an upset of the Saints.
Useful links:
Super Trifecta Bowl rules: http://www.roi2partners.com/wftl/superfecta-bowl/
A little history: STB I was won by the shameless Little Tuna with #1 Seed and Super Bowl winner Patriots. So, we tweaked the rules to make the STB II more competitive. The Bookie won with #1 Seed and Super Bowl loser Panthers. In STB III, The Bookie defended her championship with #4 Seed and NFC Championship loser Packers. If the The Game Which Shall Not Be Named was not fixed last year (!), Atwork would have won with #2 Seed Falcons. The Bookie has earned a Trifecta in the wild card round every year and that has proved to be the difference in her victories.
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
The Picks Are In
See the scenarios for the final three Analysts of the competition before the first two games of the Championship Round….
Scenarios | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Scenarios
With only four teams remaining, there are only four possible correct pick twos in the conference championships: PIT-GB, NE-GB, PIT-ATL, NE-ATL.
Five Analysts have been eliminated after the Divisional Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl: B-Reezy, Little Tuna, Kal Krome, Wise Orangutan, and Big Tuna. The most that any of these Analysts can score is 9 points, but they trail the current leader by 10 points.
By rule, the remaining three Analysts have to pick their respective Home Teams to win the conference championships. By current standings, the scenarios before picks are:
The Strategist (14 points): If Pittsburgh wins, the Strategist will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. If Atlanta wins the NFC Championship, The Strategist will win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Green Bay wins also, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III likely will be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Pittsburgh loses, she may be able to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if Atlanta wins against Green Bay… but only if she suffers the humiliation of picking New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!
The Bookie (13 points): If Green Bay wins, the Bookie will earn 5 points for Playoff Victory and Seeder Redux. She will also become eligible for 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points. IF New England wins the AFC Championship, The Bookie will earn all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points for 8 points total and win Super Trifecta Bowl III on Sunday. If Pittsburgh wins, the winner of Super Trifecta Bowl III may be determined in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named. If Green Bay loses, she still has an outside chance to win the Super Trifecta Bowl if New England beats Pittsburgh and Atlanta — and, if The Strategist does not pick New England to beat Atlanta in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named!
Note on The Strategist vs. The Bookie — Should their Home Teams lose, The Strategist still can gain 2 Seeder Redux points by correctly picking Green Bay to win, but an Atlanta pick and win earns nothing more for The Strategist. On the other hand, a correct pick by The Bookie for Pittsburgh earns 2 Seeder Redux points or for New England earns 3 Player Hater points. Despite trailing by one point, The Bookie has more paths to victory.
Atwork (7 points): Atwork has one clear path to victory in Super Trifecta Bowl III. He must pick Atlanta and Atlanta must win. New England must also win so that he earns all 3 Reverse PC-Fecta points and blocks The Strategist from sprinting down the homestretch. If he wisely picks New England to win (given the scenario), he will earn 3 Player Hater points for a total of 9 points this weekend. Then, in The Game Which Shall Not Be Named, Atlanta must defeat New England so that he earns the trifecta and one Seeder Redux point for a total of 11 points in the Championship Round. With 18 points total, The Clearinghouse estimates (with 99% certainty) that The Bookie and The Strategist will not be able to keep pace with Atwork.
Slate of Games | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Championship Round
Super Trifecta Bowl III | Slate of Games
With compliments to CBS Sports, the Slate of Games for Super Trifecta Bowl III are:
Analysts must pick from the two games in the conference championships. Analysts whose Home Teams have been eliminated are free to pick any of the four teams to win. Analysts with a Home Team in the Championship round must take against their Home Team.
As a game of skill, we provide a few links for Analysts to prepare their prognostication research:
Team Stats
ELO Predictions (fivethirtyeight.com)
Colleagues (other experts)
Trifecta Points
A trifecta (pick three correctly) is worth 1 points in the Championship round for all Analysts.
Analysts whose Home Teams are playing in the Championship round will earn 3 Playoff Victory point if their Home Team wins.
Analyst who correctly pick Home Teams that are playing in the Championship round may earn Reverse PCFecta points: 2 for the best defensive effort (lowest score by an opponent) and 1 for the best offensive effort (highest score by the Home Team).
In the Championship Round, New England can earn 3 Player Hater points against each Home Team played in the round (max = 2 games).
The following teams earn Seeder Redux points with a win in the conference championships: Pittsburgh (2 points) and Packers (2 points). World football championship Seeder Redux will be determined after the conference championships.
NOTE: Points earned from picks will vary by Analyst. For example, if Wise Orangutan correctly picks the Packers to win, he earns 2 Seeder Redux points (2 total). If The Bookie correctly picks the Packers to win, she earns 2 Seeder Redux points, 3 Playoff Victory point, and up to 3 Reverse PCFecta points (8 total possible).
Probabilities
Each year, ten playoff games precede the professional football championship game held in February: four wildcard, four divisional, and two championship games.
Since 2002, away team upsets have averaged about 3-4 per year (38%). In 2005 and 2010, 6 away teams (60%) upset the higher-seeded hosts – the highest recorded number of away team upsets in the past 13 years. Although home-field gives an advantage for the win, away teams will typically present 3 to 4 opportunities for Seeder Redux or Player Hater points in the playoffs — provided the Analyst picks skillfully.
Standings | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
The three Analysts with new Home Team selections to start the postseason control their destinies headed into the Championship Round of the Super Trifecta Bowl.
The Strategist (14) makes her move down the backstretch with a trifecta, Home Team win, 2 Reverse PC-Fecta points, and 4 Seeder Redux points! She takes a one-point lead into the far turn.
The Bookie (13) continues her sprint with a trifecta, (unlikely) Home Team win with 3 Seeder Redux points.
Atwork (7) gives chase in third with a Home Team win and 1 Reverse PC-Fecta point. He can take the Super Trifecta Bowl with an unlikely professional football championship by his Home Team in Atlanta!
The rest of the field is in dire straights headed into the final turn. Big Tuna (4), with 3 Base trifecta points, is in the best position provided he can end in a points tie with Atwork.
The Clearinghouse is still calculating win scenarios to determine if Wise Orangutan, Kal Krome, B-Reezy, and Little Tuna remain in the competition at the final stretch.
No un-owned teams played an Analyst’s Home Team so there were no Player Hater points to be won in the divisional round. The Patriots progressed, however, and can score 6 Player Hater points in the Championship Round.
Picks | Super Trifecta Bowl III | Divisional Round
The Picks Are In
The Pick Results Are In
The Bookie and The Strategist net their second trifectas of the postseason to move ahead of the competition.
Atwork and Little Tuna pick up two Correct Picks including their Home Teams. Big Tuna also picks two correctly.
The rest of the stumbled through the Divisional Round as their Home Teams faltered.
