The Fastest Four Weeks in Sports Analysis (is it already four weeks into Season VIII!) the PC-Fecta Derby had a single leader out of the gates and around the near turn! Could she hold onto her lead for her first Crown Win ever?!!?
And the Winner is…
Sponge Mom (34 points)! She earned three *base* Trifectas and twelve *bonus* points in the first three Legs of the Race. It looked a little sketchy in the home stretch, but Sponge Mom nabbed a *lame* Trifecta to close out her first ever Crown!
Roxy Trot (31 points) poured on the PC-Fecta *bonus* points in the final three Legs. She earned one *base* Trifecta and three *lame* Trifectas in four weeks. Her League-leading sixteen *bonus* points secured her the Place. Wise Orangutan (25 points) Shows with one *base* Trifecta, three *lame* Trifectas, and ten *bonus* points.
Heading the middle of the field, KateTDid (24 points) closes strong in fourth place after her Home Team corrects its errant ways. Woody (21 points) finds her stride with her first *base* Trifecta to claim fifth place. Jimmy V (20 points) finishes in sixth place on the strength of three *base* Trifectas. Playing the long game in Week 4, The Strategist (19 points) slipped into seventh place. Little Tuna and Bookie finish with 17 points each, Little Tuna taking eighth place on first tiebreaker (Titans defeated Seahawks).
In the back half of the field, B-Reezy and Big Tuna net 14 points each, with Big Tuna finishing in tenth position on third tiebreaker (-1.3 point differential per game vs. -6.8 pdpg). Craft Brew (12 points) struggles (unusually!) in twelfth place despite his steel-y disposition to start the season. With her can-do attitude, Mo Money (7 points each) outpaces Atwork (3 points) to take the penultimate position!
Trifecta Points
Trifecta Points after Final Results of PC-Fecta Derby VIII
Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers after Final Results of PC-Fecta Derby VIII
Trifecta Points after Leg 3 of PC-Fecta Derby VIII
Headed into the homestretch, half of the field has been eliminated by the front-runner, Sponge Mom! But, her path to her first Win is not written in hoof prints…She must fend off her final challengers to the wire!!!
Scenarios
Seventeen points are the maximum possible in a Leg of the PC-Fecta Derby — a *base* Trifecta (6), an *extra* point (1) for including the Home Team, defensive *PC-Fecta* points (3) for the best Home Team points allowed, and offensive *PC-Fecta* points (7) for the best Home Team points scored.
All references to an *extra* point infers the Analyst Picked his or her Home Team to Win! There are NO scenarios in which an Analyst currently trailing Sponge Mom can Win PC-Fecta Derby VIII without Picking his or her Home Team to Win.
Scenarios cannot take into account all situations in which two or more Analysts earn the same PC-Fecta *bonus* points (defensive or offensive). This does not happen too often, but please see the Disclaimer below!
For The Win:
Sponge Mom leads by 7 points over her closest challenger, Roxy Trot. If she earns a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and either *PC-Fecta* points (+3 or +7), she Wins the Race going away at 41 to 48 points. Roxy Trot could at best tie her at 41 points with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* but Sponge Mom would Win on second tiebreaker (4 Correct Home Team Picks).
If Sponge Mom earns a *lame* Trifecta, *extra* point, and the offensive *PC-Fecta* points (+7) to reach 42 points, she Wins. If she earns a *lame* Trifecta, *extra* point, and the defensive *PC-Fecta* points (+3) to reach 38 points, Roxy Trot can Win with all 17 points — which means the Bills and Rams both would have to hold their opponents to the lowest points allowed (an unlikely situation). If Roxy Trot ties her at 38 with a *base* Trifecta and the offensive *PC-Fecta*, Sponge Mom would again Win on second tiebreaker (4 Correct Home Team Picks).
If Sponge Mom earns a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point and NO *PC-Fectas to reach 38 points, only Roxy Trot can challenge for the Win by earning a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* (+10) to reach 41 points. Offensive *PC-Fecta* alone is not enough for Roxy Trot because she will again reach 38 points and lose on second tiebreaker. Likewise, Wise Orangutan loses on second tiebreaker to Sponge Mom if he also reaches 38 points with the full +17 points possible in a single week.
If Sponge Mom earns a *base* Trifecta with NO *extra* point, she reaches 37 points. OR, if Sponge Mom earns a *lame* Trifecta with an *extra* point, she reaches 35 points. In both cases, Roxy Trot must have a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* (+7) at 38 points. Wise Orangutan can Win by earning a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* (+10) to total 38 points.
If Sponge Mom earns a *lame* Trifecta without an *extra* point, she reaches 34 points. In that case, Roxy Trot can Win with a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* (+7) at 38 points OR Roxy Trot can Win with a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and defensive *PC-Fecta* (+3) at 34 points on third tiebreaker (Bills currently have the better point differential per game over the Rams). Wise Orangutan can Win by earning a *base* Trifecta, an *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* (+7) to total 35 points (note: at best, Roxy Trot could reach 34 points with the defensive PC-Fecta).
If Sponge Mom fails to earn a *lame* Trifecta in Leg 4 (+0 points), she ends with 31 points and things get really interesting!!! Again, every remaining Win Scenario implies the listed Analyst (Correctly!) Picked his or her Home Team to Win. So, the Scenario for each contending Analyst is…
Roxy Trot has the inside rail. She needs the offensive *PC-Fecta* to Win going away, or the defensive *PC-Fecta* to eliminate every Analyst but Wise Orangutan (see below). If she earns the *base* Trifecta and *extra* point to tie Sponge Mom at 31 points, then Wise Orangutan or The Strategist can Win outright with a better total, or tiebreakers may determine the outcome between Sponge Mom, Roxy Trot, Wise Orangutan, or Jimmy V (see below). The Bills currently have the best point differential per game (+16.7).
Wise Orangutan can best both Sponge Mom and Roxy Trot with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and offensive *PC-Fecta* at 35 points. If he reaches 31 points with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and defensive *PC-Fecta*, he will likely lose to at least one other Analyst at 31 points based on third tiebreaker (Ravens have a -1.0 point differential per game).
The Strategist needs a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 33 points. The Strategist can not tie any leader to send the outcome to tiebreakers so she needs all 17 points to remain in contention.
Jimmy V is the wildcard in the final stretch. His Cardinals face Sponge Mom‘s Rams, so his Home Team can block Sponge Mom from earning one Correct Pick and any *bonus* points, plus he also nets 3 Correct Home Team Picks to equal Sponge Mom on second tiebreaker. So, if he earns a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 31 points, the Derby can end in a tie with Sponge Mom and and (possibly) Roxy Trot. The Cardinals currently have the second best point differential per game (+12.7) and will have stopped the Rams from improving — only the Bills could best the Cardinals’ point differential per game in that scenario! (See Disclaimer!)
Woody can earn a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 31 points, ending the Derby in a tie with Sponge Mom and (possibly) Roxy Trot. The Browns (+8.7) currently trail both the Bills and Rams in point differential per game, but anything can happen on any give Sunday! (See Disclaimer!)
Little Tuna can earn a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and both *PC-Fectas* to reach 31 points, ending the Derby in a tie with Sponge Mom and (possibly) Roxy Trot. The Titans (-4.3) currently trail both the Bills and Rams in point differential per game, so they have to erase a 15 to 20 point per game deficit for her to Win on tiebreakers — that does not happen on many given Sundays! (See Disclaimer!)
Disclaimer For the Win:
There is a scenario in which no Analyst does better than 31 points and the Derby ends in a four-to-six way tie. Roxy Trot, Wise Orangutan, Jimmy V, Woody, and Little Tuna can all reach 31 points to tie Sponge Mom if every one of their Home Teams Wins and two or more of those Analysts share the PC-Fecta *bonus* points in certain ways. We cannot really project those scenarios, so the order of the For the Win Scenarios reflects the relative strength of the Analysts’ current positions!
For The Place:
There are far too many possibilities to go into detail. However, an Analyst must be within 17 points of Roxy Trot at 24 points to be in contention. This means that Atwork and Mo Money have been eliminated from Purse. All Analysts mentioned above For the Win have a variety of scenarios. All Analysts heretofore unmentioned will need the offensive or both *PC-Fecta* points to Place.
Only three weeks into The Marathon of the Ass and we have four tiers of analytical performances on display!!
Sponge Mom remains perfect (3 Trifectas, 9 Correct Picks) to start Season VIII. Next week, she can tie the record for best start to a season!
With 2 Trifectas each, The Strategist, Jimmy V, and Little Tuna vie for Place. On Correct Picks, The Strategist (8) has the edge over Jimmy V (7) and Little Tuna (7).
With 1 Trifecta each, Wise Orangutan, B-Reezy, Roxy Trot and KateTDid form the middle of the field. Wise O., Roxy Trot, and KateTDid are tied for fifth place with 7 Correct Picks each, while B-Reezy in eighth looks for an opening with 6 Correct Picks.
Still seeking a first Trifecta on the year (0 Trifectas each), Craft Brew, Atwork, Woody, Big Tuna, Bookie and Mo Money are laboring through the clubhouse turn on a heavy track. Craft Brew, Woody and Bookie tie for ninth — all three have been hobbled by a single Pick each week (6 Correct Picks each). Big Tuna holds twelfth position with 5 Correct Picks, while Atwork and Mo Money are wheezing on dust in a tie for the final position with 3 Correct Picks.
Coming out of the far turn, The Fastest Four Weeks in Sports Analysis has had a single leader in the Race! Will she take the Crown with a wire-to-wire sprint?!!?
Sponge Mom (31 points) gets her third *base* Trifecta and *extra* point to hold her lead. Sponge Mom also gets a second Head-to-Head tiebreaker (over both Mo Money and B-Reezy now). She is only Analyst with Three Correct Home Team Picks and boasts a +11 point differential per game!
Roxy Trot (24 points) earns PC-Fecta *bonus* points for the second week in a row. With a *lame* Trifecta, *extra* point and PC-Fecta offense *bonus* points (+11 on the week), she narrows the gap with the leader to 7 points. Wise Orangutan (21 points) fades into third place with a *lame * Trifecta and *extra* point.
In the middle of the field with an outside change to Win, The Strategist (16 points) moves into sole possession of fourth place with a *base* Trifecta. Jimmy V, Woody, and Little Tuna (each with 14 points) share fifth position, with Jimmy V currently owning the Tiebreakers over both. All three will need to run like Secretariat to close the distance with the leader for the Win, but still have a modest chance to Place or Show.
Because 17 points are the maximum possible in a single week, Sponge Mom has eliminated the back of the field from Win, but most Analysts have a slim chance to Place.
KateTDid (13 points) slips into eighth place alone. She has a three length lead over B-Reezy and Bookie at 10 points each in ninth place. Craft Brew (9 points) holds eleventh position, trailed by Big Tuna (7 points) in twelfth place.
Atwork and Mo Money (0 points each) remain in a fierce competition for last place!
Trifecta Points
Trifecta Points after Leg 3 of PC-Fecta Derby VIII
1. How old am I? I’m old enough to have watched Super Bowl I and still remember it!!! 2. Sponge Mom will be soaking up Place after ]ANONYMOUS] earns the defensive PC-Fecta this week! 3. Here’s hoping I can stumble my way to a Trifecta this week. Fingers crossed, and good luck to all!
The Fast Four Weeks in Sports Analysis reaches the back stretch!
Sponge Mom (24 points) adds another *base* Trifecta and *extra* point to hold her lead. Sponge Mom also gets a Head-to-Head tiebreaker over B-Reezy and is the only Analyst with Two Correct Home Team Picks.
Wise Orangutan (17 points) emerges from the back of the field to move into second place with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and PC-Fecta offense *bonus* points (+14 on the week). He is followed by Roxy Trot (13 points) overtakes third place with a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point and PC-Fecta defense *bonus* points (+10 on the week).
KateTDid (10 points) slips into fourth place with a *lame* Trifecta, a nose ahead of The Strategist (10 points) who earned a *base* Trifecta and *extra* point in the week. KateTDid has the edge on The Strategist by third tiebreaker, +1.5 point differential to -1.5 point differential.
Six Analysts now contend for sixth place with 7 points each: Jimmy V, Woody, Big Tuna, B-Reezy, Little Tuna, and Bookie. All six have One Correct Home Team Pick. Jimmy V has a Head-to-Head tiebreaker over Little Tuna and Little Tuna has a Head-to-Head tiebreaker over Bookie. Jimmy V controls the inside rail with +13.0 point differential per game (third tiebreaker).
Craft Brew (6 points) trails by a length in twelfth position. Atwork and Mo Money (0 points each) compete for last place!
Trifecta Points
Trifecta Points after Leg 2 of PC-Fecta Derby VIII
1. If my team wins, they will score more points than the Chiefs… guaranteed PC-Fecta, baby! 2. Go Bucs! 3. If you’re not first, you’re last! 4. Titans will be 0-2 Little Tuna!!! Small fish stuck in a fishbowl. No Super Bowl for you.
