Note: Bills (3) indicates the Analyst receives Seeder points toward the third tiebreaker, but without a second Correct Pick the Bills do not award Trifecta points. Only Woody and KateTDid were able to bank their Bills pick.
Using the NFL.com official projections, the following teams have clinched playoff divisions or berths: Chiefs (AFC West), Packers (NFC North), Steelers (berth), and Saints (berth). These 10 Seeder points (2 divisions and 4 playoff berths) are off the table (of the 52 maximum).
For the Seeders Cup, we review only Win scenarios that earn Seeders points (not tie or loss), but Analysts can earn Seeders points if a Pick backs into a playoff seed in a lame Trifecta. A plus (+) indicates two or more outcomes must happen while an “OR” separate two or more possibilities.
AFC Playoff Seeds
Chiefs clinch first-round bye (+7) with Win + Steelers loss + Bills loss/tie
Bills clinch AFC East (+3) with Win
Steelers clinch AFC North (+3) with Win
Titans clinch playoff berth (+1) with Win + Ravens loss
NFC Playoff Seeds
Saints clinch NFC South (+3) with Win
Rams clinch playoff berth (+1) with Win
Seahawks clinch playoff berth (+1) with Win.
Buccaneers clinch playoff berth (+1) with Win + Vikings/Bears Tie
Analyst of the Year Week 15 Scenarios
In Week 14, Wise O. built a 2 Trifecta lead, while Jimmy V and Big Tuna secured Claims in the Super Trifecta Bowl (both cannot finish in last place in the AoY).
If Wise O. earns a Trifecta, Jimmy V and Big Tuna are eliminated from the Win, and The Strategist and Craft Brew must earn Trifectas to stay in contention for the Win. If he fails to add a Trifecta, Jimmy V and Big Tuna must earn Trifectas to stay in contention for the Win.
The Strategist and Craft Brew have a 3 Trifecta lead on Atwork, B-Reezy, Roxy Trot, The Bookie, and Woody. If either earns a Trifecta, all five Analysts are eliminated from Place. If both do not earn Trifectas, then each (individually) must earn a Trifecta to stay in contention for Place.
B-Reezy, The Bookie, and Woody were eliminated from the Win in Week 14 (Previous weeks: Atwork, Roxy Trot, Sponge Mom, KateTDid, and Little Tuna). Sponge Mom and Little Tuna were eliminated from Place in Week 14, joining KateTDid as out of reach of AoY Purse in Season VII.
Down the homestretch in the Marathon of the Ass, the front runner builds a formidable two-length lead with only three weeks to go!
Wise O. (9 Trifectas and 35 Correct Picks) takes a two-length lead over his closest rivals. A single Trifecta in the final three weeks will likely Crown the Ass!
The Strategist (7 Trifectas and 34 Correct Picks) holds in second place, but Craft Brew (7 Trifectas and 33 Correct Picks) closes the gap in third place. Jimmy V (6 Trifectas and 31 Correct Picks) breaks the tie to hold fourth place, a head in front of Big Tuna (6 Trifectas and 30 Correct Picks) in fifth place. These four Analysts remain in the hunt for the Win, and control the race for Place.
B-Reezy, The Bookie, and Woody have been eliminated from the Win in Week 14. They also give ground to two Analysts coming on strong in the final weeks.
Atwork surges into sixth place with 4 Trifectas and 30 Correct Picks, overtaking B-Reezy (4 Trifectas and 29 Correct Picks) and Woody (4 Trifectas and 29 Correct Picks) in a tie for seventh place. Likewise, following three straight Trifectas, Roxy Trot (4 Trifectas 27 Correct Picks) claws into ninth place, ahead of The Bookie (4 Trifectas and 26 Correct Picks) in tenth position. These Analysts can still Place but need to be flawless (and for second place leaders to be completely flawed).
Sponge Mom (3 Trifectas and 29 Correct Picks) holds eleventh place over Little Tuna (3 Trifectas and 27 Correct Picks). KateTDid (2 Trifectas and 24 Correct Picks) will need a string of Trifectas or The Seeders’ Cup to avoid ending in last place!
Trifectas
Standings after Week 14 of Analyst of the Year VII
Correct Picks
Tiebreakers after Week 14 of Analyst of the Year VII
Out of the gates, we have a team of front runners at the head of the field in the seventh running of The Seeders’ Cup!
Atwork, Jimmy V, Craft Brew, Sponge Mom, and Wise Orangutan nab 9 Trifecta Points in the near turn. Atwork leads by a head with 1 Correct Home Team Pick (all others = 0). Jimmy V and Sponge Mom share second place by a nose (6 Seeder points each) over Craft Brew and Wise Orangutan (3 Seeder points each) in a tie for fourth position.
At 6 Trifecta Points each, Roxy Trot, The Bookie, Woody, and The Strategist trail closely. The Bookie and Woody have the edge for sixth place with 1 Correct Home Team Pick and 3 Seeder points. Roxy Trot lags by a nose (1 Correct Home Team Pick and 0 Seeder points) in eighth, while The Strategist trails by a head (0 Correct Home Team Picks) in ninth.
Little Tuna heads the back of the field with 3 Trifecta Points in tenth place. At 0 points each, KateTDid has the jump (4 Seeder points) on B-Reezy (3 Seeder points) and Big Tuna (0 Seeder points) out of the gates.
We had a handful of Releases (and a failed negotiation at a horse swap!). The Analysts have submitted papers and claimed new Home Teams. The Claim Box for The Seeders’ Cup VII is:
Home Team Claims for The Seeders’ Cup VII
Slate of Games
Slate of Games for The Seeders’ Cup VII
The Seeders Cup VII features 43 games over 4 Legs in the Slate of Games. There are relatively few head-to-head games (9 total)! The most challenging may be the 3rd and 4th Legs when the top teams will be playing for #1 seeds and division titles.
We have one TNF game (Leg 1), a Friday (Xmas) game (Leg 3), four Saturday games (Leg 2 and Leg 3) and three MNF games (Legs 1 to 3).
Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home).
Picks
Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may NOT pick their Claimed team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win. See the The Seeders’ Cup Rules for more.
Email picks in private to The Bookie before each Leg (week) of the Race. Thursday and Friday (Xmas game) Picks are due at 5pm EST / 2pm PST on Thursdays. In Legs 2 and 3, all Saturday, Sunday and Monday Picks are due on Fridays at 5pm EST / 2pm PST. In Leg 4, all Picks for Sunday games in the final week are due Saturday at 5pm EST / 2pm PST. No Picks for games after kickoffs are accepted.
No revisions (Re-Picks) are possible after the Picks have been released to all Analysts by The Bookie.
The Test of the Computations down the homestretch proves to be a real head scratcher for most Analysts! Seven Analysts earn 0 points, including the three front runners. The winner of Fibonacci Stakes VII is…
Craft Brew! With one of only three *base* Trifectas in Leg 5, he sprints past the competition with 21 points in the homestretch. He Wins with 51 points total. The Strategist limps across the line with an 8-point *lame* Trifecta, giving her just enough (36 points) to secure Place.
Wise Orangutan stalls at 33 points and drops into a three-way tie with Big Tuna (33 points) and The Bookie (33 points), from out of last place with 21-point *base* Trifecta. On second tiebreaker, The Bookie (3 Correct Home Team Picks) and Wise Orangutan (3 Correct Home Team Picks) outrun Big Tuna (2 Correct Home Team Picks) in fifth place. The Bookie (5 Fibonacci bonuses) and Wise Orangutan (5 Fibonacci bonuses) then tie for Show as there is no clear edge for either on third tiebreaker.
Roxy Trot adds a 16-point *base* Trifecta in the final push to earn sixth place at 31 points. Woody and Sponge Mom finish at 30 points each, Woody falling to seventh place two head lengths (2 Correct Picks vs. 0 Correct Picks) ahead of Sponge Mom in eighth place. Atwork nets a 13-point *lame* Trifecta to finish in ninth place at 25 points.
The back of the field struggled to find a second Correct Pick (0 points) in the homestretch. Little Tuna (24 points) falls into tenth place, B-Reezy (19 points) to eleventh, KateTDid (16 points) to twelfth place, leaving Jimmy V (14 points) to close the gates at the finish line.
Trifecta Points
Final Results for Standings of Fibonacci Stakes VII
Tiebreakers
Final Results for Tiebreakers of Fibonacci Stakes VII
Heading into the homestretch in the Marathon of the Ass, Wise Orangutan holds onto the lead but gives ground to Analysts in the middle of the field.
Wise O. (8 Trifectas and 32 Correct Picks) adds only one Correct Pick to his totals after changing to prevent defense to protect his lead. Two-time (she made us say that) AoY Champion The Strategist (7 Trifectas and 32 Correct Picks) remains in second place and gains a Correct Pick on the leader. The Winners’ Circle stalwart Craft Brew (6 Trifectas and 30 Correct Picks) surges into third place with the only Trifecta in Week 13 among the top half of the field (he must have read the personal best/records email!!!).
Season VI runner-up Jimmy V (6 Trifectas and 29 Correct Picks) falls back into a tie for fourth place with former AoY Champion Big Tuna (6 Trifectas and 29 Correct Picks).
On the cusp of elimination — down 4 Trifectas with 4 Weeks to go — B-Reezy (4 Trifectas and 28 Correct Picks) stays in sixth place, only a neck ahead of Woody (4 Trifectas and 27 Correct Picks) in seventh place. The Bookie (4 Trifectas and 24 Correct Picks) keeps her hopes alive for one more week with one of 2 Trifectas in the bottom half of the field.
Five lengths behind the leader with only four weeks to go, Sponge Mom (3 Trifectas and 27 Correct Picks), Atwork (3 Trifectas and 27 Correct Picks), and Little Tuna (3 Trifectas and 25 Correct Picks) have been eliminated from the Win but still have a mathematical shot at Place for at least one more Week!
A shake up at the back of the field…Roxy Trot (3 Trifectas and 24 Correct Picks) climbs out of the basement with her second Trifecta in as many weeks. KateTDid (2 Trifectas and 23 Correct Picks) drops into last place, now facing the loss of her Claim to the Titans during the playoffs!
With four weeks to go, the race to the bottom is not over!
Trifectas
Standings after Week 13 of Analyst of the Year VII
Correct Picks
Tiebreakers after Week 13 of Analyst of the Year VII
Atwork: Packers***/Seahawks**/Ravens** (21 points)
Jimmy V: Seahawks**/Chiefs/Steelers (11 points)
Craft Brew: Saints**/Packers**/Chiefs** (21 points)
B-Reezy: Bears***/Seahawks**/Chiefs** (21 points)
Roxy Trot: Saints**/Chiefs**/Ravens (16 points)
Sponge Mom: Packers**/Seahawks**/Steelers** (21 points)
The Bookie: Bills***/Packers**/Ravens** (21 points)
Big Tuna:Ravens***/Packers**/Steelers (16 points)
Woody: Seahawks***/Packers**/Steelers** (21 points)
The Strategist: Chiefs*/Packers**/Seahawks (11 points)
Wise Orangutan: Spit BoxcSeahawks/Chiefs/Steelers (6 points)
KateTDid: Titans***/Seahawks**/Chiefs (16 points)
Little Tuna:Titans**/Steelers**/Chiefs (16 points)
* Denotes home team
**Denotes Fibonacci bonus
***Denotes Home Team and Fibonacci bonus
Spit Box
1. I am fixing to be Ass of the a Year!!
2. The Buccs are on a bye week, I think they have been on one for the last couple of weeks.
3. May your horse run strait. If not there's always the glue factory!!!
4. Can I pay to win the trophy?
5. This would be easier if i wasn't drinking!🍸
The Results Are (Coming) In:
Atwork: Packers***/Seahawks**/Ravens** (13 points)
Jimmy V: Seahawks**/Chiefs/Steelers(0 points)
Craft Brew: Saints**/Packers**/Chiefs** (21 points)
B-Reezy: Bears***/Seahawks**/Chiefs**(0 points)
Roxy Trot: Saints**/Chiefs**/Ravens (16 points)
Sponge Mom: Packers**/Seahawks**/Steelers**(0 points)
The Bookie: Bills***/Packers**/Ravens** (21 points)
Big Tuna: Ravens***/Packers**/Steelers (13 points)
Woody: Seahawks***/Packers**/Steelers**(0 points)
The Strategist: Chiefs*/Packers**/Seahawks(8 points)
Wise Orangutan: Seahawks/Chiefs/Steelers(0 points)
KateTDid: Titans***/Seahawks**/Chiefs (0 points)
Little Tuna: Titans**/Steelers**/Chiefs(0 points)
* Denotes home team
**Denotes Fibonacci bonus
***Denotes Home Team and Fibonacci bonus
Headed into the home stretch, Wise Orangutan(33 points) has only a three-length lead over Craft Brew, Sponge Mom, and Woody (30 points each). The complete Standings are here.
Leg 5 may award up to 21 points (6 *base* plus 5 *bonus* per Fibonacci Pick). All Analysts are within 21 points of the leader after Leg 4, so technically all are within striking distance of the Win. But…Bye Weeks (Buccaneers) and Box Outs may diminish a few Analysts’ chances.
Scenarios
Scenarios are discussed by (Current Place) Analyst – Current Points (Leg 4 Picks) in the order of current standings. Aside from the current leader, we largely consider outcomes based on *base* Trifectas — the possible outcomes for *lame* Trifectas is too complicated for us to fathom! Also, we are not able to take into account if you are one of the Analysts in strong contention to Win (or to finish in last place!) in the Analyst of the Year, so would rather Pick with that Race in mind.
A unique set of Picks. If he goes for the same three teams, he will hold his lead if all three Win. If only two Win or if he changes even one team, he can be overtaken by Analysts with 28+ points. If he changes two teams, he can be overtaken by Analysts with 20+ points even if every team Wins. On the other hand, if he earns at least 3 points, Analysts with 14 or fewer points are eliminated from the Win. If he earns at least 8 points (*lame* Trifecta with one Fibonacci Pick), Analysts with 19 or fewer points are eliminated from the Win.
(2) Woody – 30 points (Seahawks/Packers/Steelers)
A unique set of Picks – Wise O. cannot Box Out due to the +5 Fibonacci bonuses she can earn. She needs Wise O. to change at least one Pick OR to earn no better than a *lame* Trifecta. If she strategically changes even one Pick, she will be counting on Sponge Mom, Craft Brew, and The Strategist to earn less than the 21-point Trifecta. If she ties with Wise O. at 46 points or fewer, she can Win on tiebreakers provided that she keeps the Seahawks for a third Correct Home Team Pick. She currently has tiebreakers over her closest competitors: Sponge Mom, Craft Brew, and The Strategist.
Boxed Out by Woody (same three Picks). Also, she must score more than 3 points to avoid a tie with Wise O. (to which she loses on tiebreakers). In order for Sponge Mom to Win, her best hope is to change one Pick, earn the 16-point *base* Trifecta, and then root for Wise O., Woody, Craft Brew, and The Strategist to finish with less than 46 points. If she earns partial points (*lame* Trifecta) and ties with Wise O., Woody, or The Strategist she will lose on second tiebreaker. If she ties Craft Brew, she needs to hold her tiebreaker advantage. If she ties Little Tuna, she currently prevails on first tiebreaker. Other tiebreakers with Analysts at 20 or fewer points are not considered. Lastly, she can also trail Woody with the same three Picks with the expectation to Place ($).
A unique set of Picks from those ahead of him (only Packers in common). He must score more than 3 points to avoid a tie with Wise O. If he sticks with the same three Picks and all Win, he will be counting on (Wise O.’s) Browns or Bills and (Woody’s) Seahawks or Steelers (forbid the thought!) to lose – or that those ahead of him change at least one Pick. If he changes one Pick, he may lose his advantage over The Strategist. If he changes two Picks (11-point Trifecta), he could expose himself to Big Tuna in a tie at 41 points.
(5) The Strategist – 28 points (Browns/Steelers/Packers)
A unique set of Picks. But she shares in common the Browns & Packers with Wise O. and the Packers & Steelers with with Woody and Sponge Mom. If she keeps the same three Picks, she is threading a needle to Win: the Bills must lose (Wise O.), the Seahawks must lose (Woody and Sponge Mom), and the Saints or Chiefs must lose (Craft Brew). She can change one Pick (for a 16-point Trifecta) and overtake the Analysts ahead of her if Wise O. busts and none of the other Analysts earn better than a *lame* Trifecta worth 13 points or fewer.
(6) Little Tuna – 24 points (Buccaneers/Titans/Steelers)
A unique set of Picks, but due to the Buccaneers Pick she can only earn 16 points (for 40 total). Also she likely cannot take the Seahawks or Packers since it gives Woody and/or Sponge Mom the Box Out (either will earn at least 13 point *lame* Trifectas if they keep the same teams). Titans gives her an advantage over Wise O. and The Strategist if either keeps the Browns (Browns @ Titans in Leg 5). So, she needs a wildcard to replace the Bucs and hope that no other Analysts scores more than 39 points because her tiebreaker portfolio is not strong: she loses on first tiebreaker to Sponge Mom and The Strategist, and has only 1 Correct Home Team Pick.
(7) Big Tuna – 20 points (Ravens/Packers/Saints)
A unique set of Picks, but partially Boxed Out by Craft Brew. If both Packers and Saints Win, Craft Brew reaches 43 points – more than the 41 Big Tuna can earn with the same three Picks. If he changes one Pick, his maximum total will be 36 points. In that case, he could change the Packers or Saints to a team that avoids a Box Out by the Analysts ahead of him (assuming all do not change Picks!). Also, none of the Analysts above can earn more than 35 points to avoid a decision on tiebreakers (his tiebreaker portfolio is a mixed bag…).
(8) B-Reezy – 19 points (Bears/Seahawks/Saints)
A unique set of Picks. He can reach 40 points with the same three Picks but needs nearly all Analysts above to finish at 39 points or fewer (busted Trifectas) due to a weak tiebreaker portfolio. Changing even one Pick limits his possible total to 35 points.
A unique set of Picks, but due to the Buccaneers Pick she can only earn 16 points for 32 total — one less than Wise O. currently has. She can still Place provided that she change the Bucs to a team not currently Picked by Woody, Sponge Mom and B-Reezy (due to Seahawks in common) or by Little Tuna (due to Titans in common).
Boxed Out by Craft Brew (same three Picks). She can Place with the same three Picks if everyone ahead of her falters and Craft Brew Wins. If she changes even one Pick, the best she can do is Place at 31 points behind Wise O.
(11) Jimmy V – 14 points (Browns/Saints/Seahawks)
A unique set of Picks. The same three Picks can Win if every Analyst above him (except B-Reezy) fails to earn a *lame* Trifecta with their same three Picks. B-Reezy shares Saints and Seahawks in common, so Bears must lose (forbid the thought!) if Jimmy V is to overtake B-Reezy.
(12) Atwork – 12 points (Packers/Seahawks/Ravens)
Boxed Out for Win or Place by Woody and Sponge Mom (Seahawks and Packers in common). Changing even one Pick will limit his total to 28 points (currently fifth place).
(13) The Bookie – 12 points (Bills/Packers/Ravens)
Boxed Out for Win by Wise O. (Bills and Packers) and for Place by Big Tuna (Packers and Ravens). Changing even one Pick will limit her total to 28 points (currently fifth place).
