Category: PC-Fecta Derby

PC-Fecta Derby VI | Leg 1 Picks

The Analysts Picks are in:

Atwork: Packers*/Chiefs/Saints
B-Reezy: Chargers*/Eagle/Saint
Big Tuna: Saints*/Cowboys/Eagles
Little Tuna: Cowboys*/Rams/Patriots
Craft Brew:  Chiefs*/Vikings/Saints
Roxy Trot: Patriots*/Rams/Saints  
Jimmy V: Rams*/Chiefs/Saints
Sponge Mom: Falcons*/Chiefs/Patriots
Wise Orangutan: Packers/Eagles/Saints
The Strategist: Panthers*/Chargers/Saints
KateTDid: Bears*/Chiefs/Rams
Woody: Eagles*/Falcons/Rams
The Bookie: Bills*/Eagles/Saints

*Denotes Home Team

Spit Box:

  1. I sucker punched myself by claiming a Home Team that plays the Patriots the first week of the season! (Note: Opponent crossed out to maintain Analyst’s anonymity.)
  2. One of the Analyst (not the Bookie) thinks the Bookie should get a consolation prize for getting a trifecta during the trial games. Because well. We know her record! It will be this time NEXT year before she sees another!
  3. A more beautiful Analyst says “That woman NEVER let her win when she was a child and well, karma is a B!^(H!!”
  4. With Bears/GB information from The Bookie, not picking either team to win seems the better decision.
  5. Crickets chirping here as far as picking a Thursday game.  🦗 🦗🦗🦗
  6. Going for a trifecta let’s see what happens🏈
  7. I’ve always said Football teaches hope and faith. Hope that your team will do well this year. Faith that your team will do better next year.

The Results Are (Coming) In:

The Strategist: Panthers*/Chargers/Saints (3 points)
Craft Brew:  Chiefs*/Vikings/Saints (14 points)
Big Tuna: Saints*/Cowboys/Eagles (7 points)
Roxy Trot: Patriots*/Rams/Saints (10 points)
B-Reezy: Chargers*/Eagles/Saints (7 points)
Jimmy V: Rams*/Chiefs/Saints (7 points)
Wise Orangutan: Packers/Eagles/Saints (6 points)
Little Tuna: Cowboys*/Rams/Patriots (7 points)
Sponge Mom: Falcons*/Chiefs/Patriots (3 points)
The Bookie: Bills*/Eagles/Saints (7 points)
Atwork: Packers*/Chiefs/Saints (10 points)
Woody: Eagles*/Falcons/Rams (4 points)
KateTDid: Bears*/Chiefs/Rams (3 points)

Bonus Points (Final):

Qualifier: Minimum 2 Correct Picks with Home Team

Best Offense: Craft Brew, Chiefs (40 points)

Best Defense: Atwork, Packers (3 points) AND Roxy Trot, Patriots (3 points)

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PC-Fecta Derby VI | Slate of Games

The Entrants

The Analysts have submitted their papers and claimed their Home Teams to start the new season. The Claim Box for PC-Fecta Derby VI is:

PCFecta Derby VI | Claims Box
PC-Fecta Derby VI | Claims Box
PCFecta Derby VI | Slate of Games
PCFecta Derby VI | Slate of Games

Slate of Games

The Slate of Games for PC-Fecta Derby VI includes the first Leg (3) to include 13 different games (no head-to-head games) in WFTL history, whereas the other three Legs feature 8 head-to-head competitions this month (the first tiebreaker in the race)!

In Leg 1, the clubhouse turn, we kick off the season with Atwork visiting the new filly, KateTDid, in Chicago. Sunday afternoon Jimmy V tests his new steed against the reigning Analyst of the Year, The Strategist. On Sunday Night Football (SNF), hapless Wise Orangutan challenges Roxy Trot and her Super Bowl champion thoroughbred. In Leg 2, the back stretch, Big Tuna seeks revenge against Jimmy V’s new stallion, before first-year Analyst, Woody, tries to clean up versus Sponge Mom! After a sleepy far turn (Leg 3), down the home stretch (Leg 4) Woody aspires to manage Atwork, Roxy Trot bets against The (house ) Bookie, and Little Tuna homes in on Big Tuna on Sunday Night Football.

Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are many featured games: three Thursday nights (TNF), all four Sunday nights (SNF), and three Monday nights (MNF).

None of the Home Teams are on a bye-week during PC-Fecta Derby VI!

Picks

Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may NOT pick their Claimed team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team to win, but *bonus* trifecta points are won only if Analysts include the Home Team in a *base* or *lame* Trifecta. See the Derby Rules for more.

Email picks in private to The Bookie before each Leg (week) of the Race. Thursday games are due by 2pm on Thursdays (flexible per The Bookie’s time in special circumstances). All Sunday and Monday Picks are due on Saturdays at 2pm. No Picks for games after kickoffs are accepted.

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Standings | PC-Fecta Derby V | Final Results

PC-Fecta Derby V (2018-19)

Final Standings

An astonishing finish to the Fastest Four Weeks in Football!

Heading into the homestretch, Little Tuna had an estimated 96% likelihood to win the PC-Fecta Derby. Not only did one Analyst have to Pick Three Correctly (12.5% chance), that one Analyst had to best all other Analysts for the best offense AND the best defense (30% chance with a Trifecta) to force a photo finish on tiebreakers.

In the early games, Little Tuna lost her opportunity to secure victory when the Falcons lost. Jimmy V notched a Trifecta with the typical display of AFC East dominance. But, Sponge Mom and Atwork owned the PC-Fecta bonus points if the Eagles won in overtime. Little Tuna’s chances suddenly rose or fell with Sponge Mom.

After the Packers (0 defense points) and Bears won (48 offense points), Sponge Mom and Atwork had a 92% chance to take Place and Show when the Eagles had 1st and 10 on the Titans’ 17 yard line. A victory by the Eagles also would have sent Little Tuna to the finish line with the Win. And, that is why we Pick the games….

Sponge Mom's Trifecta Probability
Sponge Mom’s Trifecta Probability

The winner of PC-Fecta Derby V is:

Jimmy V! The first yearling in WFTL history to win a Crown (since the first year). When the Eagles fell to the Titans, his Home Team’s blow out reaped all three bonus points to draw into a Trifecta point tie with Little Tuna. By virtue of 2 Correct Home Team Picks, he edges her by a head for the Win in PC-Fecta Derby V!

Little takes Place. Hobbled down the homestretch by a Home Team bye week, The Strategist nonetheless takes the Show with a Trifecta. Honorable mention goes to B-Reezy in fourth place with the only other Trifecta point in the PC-Fecta Derby.

The rest of the field struggled to find their first Trifecta (0 Trifectas) on the unforgiving Derby track.

Sponge Mom (3 Correct Home Team Picks and +11.5 point differential) and Big Tuna (3 Correct Home Team Picks and +4.0 point differential) nevertheless delivered stand out performances. Atwork finishes with 2 Correct Home Team Picks (+2.3 point differential) and the first tiebreaker over Sponge Mom. Fifth through seventh places end in a dead heat (Sponge Mom best Big Tuna, Big Tuna bests Atwork, and Atwork bests Sponge Mom).

At the back of the field with 1 Correct Home Team Pick separated by first tiebreaker or point differentials (see final table), Roxy Trot finishes 8th, The Bookie struggles to 9th, Craft Brew waves the yellow flag for 10th and Wise O. gets a one way ticket back to fourth grade for his last place effort.

Trifecta Points

PC-Fecta Derby V | Final Results
Final Results in PC-Fecta Derby V

Tiebreakers

PC-Fecta Derby V | Tiebreakers | Final Results
Tiebreakers for PC-Fecta Derby V at the Finish Line

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PC-Fecta Derby V | Week 4 Picks

The Analysts picks are in:

Atwork: Packers*/Eagles/Bears
B-Reezy: Jaguars*/Saints/Bears
Big Tuna: Saints*/Steelers/Jaguars
Little Tuna: Falcons/Saints/Jaguars
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Patriots/Eagles
Roxy Trot: Eagles*/Packers/Jaguars
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Packers/Jaguars
Sponge Mom: Bears*/Packers/Eagles
Wise Orangutan: Raiders*/Rams/Eagles
The Strategist: Packers/Saints/Jaguars
The Bookie: Falcons*/Saints/Jaguars

Spit Box:

(1) My picks are better when I’m drinking.
(2) I considered myself intelligent until this game came along. Why is 3 picks right so hard?!?!??
(3) It’s been a crazy 3 weeks of picks. I feel a Trifecta.
(4) Ugh! What a week!!! I’ve talked myself in and out of all my picks and finally just went back to my gut. Ugh!!!
(5) Even a blind dog stumbled across a bone once in a while.
(6) I need this trifecta! Hopefully I’ll have better luck this week.
(7) I’ve been Boxed Out!!!!!!!

* denotes home team

The Results Are In:

Atwork: Packers*/Eagles/Bears
B-Reezy: Jaguars*/Saints/Bears (1-point Trifecta)
Big Tuna: Saints*/Steelers/Jaguars
Little Tuna: Falcons/Saints/Jaguars
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Patriots/Eagles
Roxy Trot: Eagles*/Packers/Jaguars
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Packers/Jaguars (4-point Trifecta)
Sponge Mom: Bears*/Packers/Eagles
Wise Orangutan: Raiders*/Rams/Eagles
The Strategist: Packers/Saints/Jaguars (1-point Trifecta)
The Bookie: Falcons*/Saints/Jaguars

Analysts with Trifectas:

Best offensive score: Jimmy V (38 points)

Best defensive score: Jimmy V (7 points)

 

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Scenarios | PC-Fecta Derby V | Leg 4

Current Standings | PC-Fecta Derby V

PC-Fecta Derby V | Standings | Leg 3
Standings in PC-Fecta Derby V after Leg 3

Entering the backstretch, Little Tuna has eliminated The Strategist and leads all other Analysts by four points for the win. The Strategist currently holds place, but can only earn one more Trifecta point this week because her Home Team is on a bye week.

Scenarios

More than one Analyst can earn bonus points if two or more Home Teams have exactly the same offensive or defensive performance (scores). Scenarios are much messier than the following can account for in the case of ties for bonus points!

For the Place:

The Strategist’s Home Team is on a bye. She can finish with at best 2 Trifecta points, 2 Correct Home Team Picks, and +3.7 point differential per game. She can be outrun by any of the trailing Analysts who earns a 3-point Trifecta.

If Little Tuna takes the offensive bonus, other Analysts are competing for the defensive bonus to overtake or force a photo finish with The Strategist for place. If The Strategist does not get a Trifecta, the 2-point defensive bonus is enough to place.

In the event of a tie with The Strategist for place, The Bookie moves ahead due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. If tied, Big Tuna and Sponge Mom move ahead with a Trifecta that includes their Home Team.

All other Analysts need a second Correct Home Team Pick in the event of a tie with The Strategist. If multiple Analysts tie for place, Big Tuna and Sponge Mom have the advantage for Correct Home Team Picks, while other Analysts have head-to-head competitions that take first priority in specific photo finishes.

For the Win:

Little Tuna can only be beaten on tiebreakers and only if she does not earn any Trifecta points.

She currently has 1 Correct Home Team Pick and a -4.3 point differential per game–it is possible should an Analyst win all 4 points this week.

Big Tuna and Sponge Mom are in the strongest position with 2 Correct Home Team Picks (and will thus have 3 Correct Home Team Picks if either earns all 4 points this week).

All other Analysts currently with 1 Correct Home Team Pick must 1) equal Little Tuna in Trifecta points [4] AND b) best her in Correct Home Team Picks (1 or 2 depending on this week’s results) OR by point differential per game (currently -4.3). Atwork and Jimmy V are at a disadvantage for point differential at the moment but can overtake her with a Home Team win AND if Little Tuna’s Home Team loses by a touchdown or more.

Wise O. needs a) all 4 Trifecta points, b) Little Tuna’s Home Team to lose or not be picked, and c) a Home Team win by at least 20 points!

Box Out

See Leg 3 Scenarios. Analysts trailing in Trifecta points or Tiebreakers may be boxed out by an Analyst who enters the final Leg with a better position.

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Standings | PC-Fecta Derby V | Leg 3

PC-Fecta Derby V

Trifecta Points

Around the far turn, Little Tuna rope-a-dopes the competition! No Analyst gains Trifecta points in in Leg 3 as her highly-favored Home Team loses in spectacular fashion. The current leader eliminates her closest competition and holds a four point lead over all other Analysts.

The Strategist (1 point) notched a Correct Home Team Pick, but her stallion goes into a bye week in Leg 4. She cannot overtake Little Tuna and can only earn 1 more point to defend her second position.

Third place remains a highly contested hot mess among Analysts seeking their first Trifecta of the year.

Big Tuna and Sponge Mom have two Correct Home Team Picks (second tiebreaker). Sponge Mom (+2.7 point differential per game — pdpg) edges out Big Tuna (+0.3 pdpg) on third tiebreaker. Atwork however has a head-to-head win over Sponge Mom (first tiebreaker), while also trailing Big Tuna with only 1 Correct Home Team Pick. These three are in a dead heat for third at the moment and need to find a way to separate themselves to earn more than a spot in the Winner’s Circle.

Contesting for sixth place, then, we have the other Analysts with 1 Correct Home Team Pick.

Roxy Trot has a head-to-head tiebreaker over The Bookie and B-Reezy has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Jimmy V.

B-Reezy with a +4.3 pdpg edges the competition by a nose for sixth place, trailed closely by Roxy Trot (+1.3 pdpg) in seventh.

Craft Brew (-0.7 pdpg), The Bookie (-1.7 pdpg) and Jimmy V (-6.7 pdpg) follow closely in eighth, ninth and tenth position due only to the third tiebreaker.

The final position is absolutely clear: Wise Orangutan is dead last with O Trifecta points, 0 Correct Home Team Picks, and -9.7 point differential per game!

PC-Fecta Derby V | Standings | Leg 3
Standings in PC-Fecta Derby V after Leg 3

Tiebreakers

PC-Fecta Derby V | Tiebreakers | Leg 3
Tiebreakers for PC-Fecta Derby V after Leg 3

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PC-Fecta Derby V | Week 3 Picks

The Analysts picks are in:

Atwork: Packers*/Patriots/Bears
B-Reezy: Jaguars*/Vikings/Eagles
Big Tuna: Saints*/Vikings/Eagles
Little Tuna: Vikings*/Patriots/Buccaneers
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Vikings/Jaguars
Roxy Trot: Eagles*/Vikings/Bears
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Vikings/Jaguars
Sponge Mom: Bears*/Patriots/Packers
Wise Orangutan: Raiders*/Vikings/Jaguars
The Strategist: Panthers*/Vikings/Jaguars
The Bookie: Falcons*/Vikings/Packers

Spit Box:

(1) WtF! The Vikings are favored to win by 16 points this week! (Guess who. He still hasn’t learned anonymous.**)
(2) Slowly getting over his consecutive losses. Need to rebuild and rebound fast. Coming around the 3rd corner. My picks are…And why not…Wait for it……..Steelers! Good Luck!
(3) I’ve got a Norse warrior riding a two cat chariot to victory (can’t you just see him? One foot on each cat as they race toward the Lamentations of the 🏇
(4) Hopefully I can get more points this week! Good Luck!
(5) Vikings (viqueens) Good Luck!
(6) What? You want to bag on my teams? Raiders going to win this week and I am getting all 4 points! (He learned**)

Gruden’s Corner. Straight from the Horses Mouth:
“You never stay the same. You either get better or you get worse.”
“Anything goes on any given Sunday, especially Monday Night.”

John Gruden is so stupid! He thinks a quarterback is a refund.

* denotes home team.
**Bookie notes

The Results Are In:

Atwork: Packers*/Patriots/Bears
B-Reezy: Jaguars*/Vikings/Eagles
Big Tuna: Saints*/Vikings/Eagles
Little Tuna: Vikings*/Patriots/Buccaneers
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Vikings/Jaguars
Roxy Trot: Eagles*/Vikings/Bears
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Vikings/Jaguars
Sponge Mom: Bears*/Patriots/Packers
Wise Orangutan: Raiders*/Vikings/Jaguars
The Strategist: Panthers*/Vikings/Jaguars
The Bookie: Falcons*/Vikings/Packers

Current Top Offense: None

Current Top Defense: None

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Scenarios | PC-Fecta Derby V | Leg 3

Current Standings | PC-Fecta Derby V

PC-Fecta Derby V | Standings | Leg 2
Standings in PC-Fecta Derby V after Leg 2

Little Tuna has a three point lead on the nearest Analyst and a four point lead on nine of ten Analysts.

Box Out

A Box Out occurs when one Analyst selects the same teams to win as an Analyst with fewer points–both Analysts hit a Trifecta together or not at all and, thus, the Analyst in the lead boxes out the challenger. Box Outs may occur in full (three Picks) or in part (one or two Picks). For instance, if two Analysts have two Picks in common, and both Teams from the different Picks win, then the front-running Analyst Boxes Out the trailing Analyst because both win or lose together. In other words, Analysts playing for one of the four Crowns need to consider which teams the Analyst in the lead may Pick to win.

Scenarios

Little Tuna will eliminate all Analysts if she wins 3 or more points in Leg 3. She will have 7 points total and the trailing Analysts* (see below) will at most have 6 points after Leg 4. Four points is the maximum that may be won in a single Leg, so she effectively wins the PC-Fecta Derby if she goes into Leg 4 with a 5+ point lead.

If Little Tuna earns 2 points, only one Analyst* (see below) may be in contention in Leg 4.

If Little Tuna earns 1 point, only The Strategist* (see below) and other Analysts who get a Trifecta in Leg 3 will remain in the competition.

If Little Tuna earns 0 points, then The Strategist* (see below) and Analysts who are within 1 Correct Home Team Pick will remain in contention.

* The Strategist’s Home Team is on a bye week in Leg 4 of the PC-Fecta Derby. She remains in contention for first place only if she draws within 1 Trifecta point and ties Little Tuna for Correct Home Team Picks in Leg 3. The Strategist, currently in second place with 1 Trifecta Point, may also eliminate other Analysts for the Place (2nd) if she gains a five point lead on any of the nine Analysts who currently have 0 Trifecta Points.

Tricky Picks

Thus, if an Analyst hopes to win or place in the PC-Fecta Derby, s/he must have a Trifecta (Correct Pick Three), but also consider how the leading Analysts may Pick.

As the alternative, every week, an Analyst may Pick Three for the Analyst of the Year (in other words, no concern for Picking their Home Team unless it is one of the top three options). When an Analyst is eliminated or gives up on a Crown race, the alternative is to Pick Three teams with no other regard than winning the Analyst of the Year competition. NOTE: The last two AoY Champions pursued this strategy for an entire season and won that title.

So, strateger-ize wisely, Analysts!
 

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Standings | PC-Fecta Derby V | Leg 2

PC-Fecta Derby V

Trifecta Points

Down the backstretch, only one Analyst outpaced the frontrunner, but closed the distance by just one length. The rest of the Analysts continue to jockey for positions on tiebreakers.

Little Tuna (4 points) holds a formidable lead heading into the far turn. If she extends her lead by one length over any Analysts in the back of the field, she will eliminate Analysts from the PC-Fecta Derby in the third Leg.  (Note: the maximum in a single week 4 Trifecta points so Analysts have to been within 4 of the leader on Leg 4 to catch her).

Second place prize money, however, remains a highly contested race.

The Strategist holds a one-length lead (1 point) over the rest of the field for second place. The Bookie has a head-to-head tiebreaker over The Strategist if they end in a tie for second place.

The third place picture is quite muddled in the backstretch. Roxy Trot and Atwork each hold crucial Head-to-Head tiebreakers over another Analyst in the field, but the remaining 9 Analysts are tied with 0 points. The accountants will use the second and third tiebreakers first to sort this mess out.

B-Reezy moves into third place with 1 Home Team Pick and +8 point game differential per game.

Sponge Mom bears down on fourth place with 1 Home Team pick and +3 points per game, BUT by virtue of the head-to-head game Atwork noses out Sponge Mom for fourth place and she falls back to fifth place. The Bookie trails closely, technically in a tie with Atwork for fifth place (both 1 Home Team pick and +0.5 point differential per game). In other words, the Analysts in the fourth through sixth positions has become unclear at this time.

Jimmy V falters in Jacksonville and slips down into seventh place (1 Correct Home Team and -2.0 point differential) as he heads into the far turn. Big Tuna follows by a head (1 Correct Home Team and -2.5 point differential) in eighth.

With no Correct Home Team Picks, Roxy Trot (0 point differential) and Craft Brew (-2.5) hold ninth and tenth respectively. Roxy Trot holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over The Bookie so technically she is in strong position for fifth place at the same time!

Bringing up the rear, disrespectfully, Wise Orangutan trails all Analysts with no Correct Home Team Picks and a -10.5 point differential per game.

PC-Fecta Derby V | Standings | Leg 2

Standings in PC-Fecta Derby V after Leg 2

Tiebreakers

PC-Fecta Derby V | Tiebreakers | Leg 2
Tiebreakers for PC-Fecta Derby V after Leg 2

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PC-Fecta Derby V | Week 2 Picks

The Analysts picks are in:

Atwork: Packers*/Eagles/Falcons
B-Reezy: Vikings/Raiders/Panthers
Big Tuna:Saints*/Vikings/Patriots
Little Tuna: Vikings*/Steelers/Broncos
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Eagles/Saints
Roxy Trot: Eagles*/Patriots/Saints
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Saints/Broncos
Sponge Mom: Bears*/Vikings/Jaguars
Wise Orangutan: Raiders*/Saints/Steelers
The Strategist: Saints/Broncos/Bears
The Bookie: Falcons*/Broncos/Patriots

Spit Box:

(1) Big Ben was the best player on the Browns last Sunday!!
(2) When Little Tuna doesn’t pick the Patriots they lose. She’s got insider information.
(3) Going for it even though there’s a east pick still on the table
(4) Giddy’up! I’ve got a holy man riding a horse being chased by a bear!!!
(5) All away games
(6) Hopefully I can get a trifecta and a bonus!!!
(7) I will tell my picks–I picked the Cheat-riots three times. The Jaguars are sure to win now! (Previously emailed to all. He hasn’t learned the anonymous thing**)

* denotes home team
** Bookie notes

The Results Are In:

Atwork: Packers*/Eagles/Falcons
B-Reezy: Vikings/Raiders/Panthers
Big Tuna:Saints*/Vikings/Patriots
Little Tuna: Vikings*/Steelers/Broncos
Craft Brew: Steelers*/Eagles/Saints
Roxy Trot: Eagles*/Patriots/Saints
Jimmy V: Patriots*/Saints/Broncos
Sponge Mom: Bears*/Vikings/Jaguars
Wise Orangutan: Raiders*/Saints/Steelers
The Strategist: Saints/Broncos/Bears (1 point)
The Bookie: Falcons*/Broncos/Patriots

Current Top Offense: None

Current Top Defense: None

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