A reminder that we adopted a Rule for Home Team trades last season: here.
Season VII begins in uncertainty as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage parts of America. The Analysts have chosen not to adopt special rules for canceled games or convalescing Home Teams. Claimers beware!
Season VII | Starting Home Team Claims
A second reminder that the order of the Standing during Season VII reflects the final rankings for Analyst of the Year VI…a bitter third reminder for Wise Orangutan that he is the only member of his immediate family who has not won the most illustrious or the most prestigious trophy in sports analysis!
The Fastest Four Weeks in Sports Analysis lives up to its billing!
Headed into the final stretch, a handful of Analysts had set a blistering pace with three Trifectas in the first three Legs. But, the final stretch proved to be a challenge for many Analysts. Coming out of the near turn, Roxy Trot held a slim lead over Craft Brew and his offensive juggernaut. Could she hold off his final charge?
And the winner is…
Craft Brew! With his third *base* Trifecta of the Derby and third *offense bonus*, Craft Brew finishes with the Win down the stretch with 46 points. Roxy Trot’s Home Team delivered, but she added only 4 points in the final stretch and Placed with 38 points.
Little Tuna (27 points) Shows, edging past Atwork (24 points) who finished fourth after the final Leg.
Each with 21 points and 3 Correct Home Team Picks, KateTDid galloped from the back of the field to take 5th place, nosing out Jimmmy V and The Bookie for fifth place on third tiebreaker (7.0 pdpg vs. 5.3 and 4.3, respectively.)
Finishing at the back of the field, we have Big Tuna (19) in eighth, B-Reezy (17) in ninth, Woody (16) in tenth place, and Sponge Mom (12) in eleventh place.
The Strategist (9) sneaks past Wise Orangutan (9) for twelfth on third tiebreakers.
Trifecta Points
Final Results for the PC-Fecta Derby VI
Tiebreakers
Final Results for Tiebreakers in PC-Fecta Derby VI
Roxy Trot (34 points) remains in first place, but followed closely by Craft Brew (32 points). Only Little Tuna (24), Atwork (24), Jimmy V (21), and The Bookie (21) can overtake the two leaders for the Win. Big Tuna (16) can catch Craft Brew for the Place.
B-Reezy (13), Wise Orangutan (9), Sponge Mom (12), Woody (13), and KateTDid (14) are eliminated from the Purse, but can still earn a Show.
The Strategist (6) is eliminated from The Winner’s Circle.
Scenarios
There are 17 points possible in the final Leg if an Analyst hits the *base* Trifecta PLUS all *bonus* points. Even if one of the trailing Analysts earn those points, Roxy Trot or Craft Brew may take the Win with a *base* Trifecta.
For Win or Place:
If Roxy Trot earns a *base* Trifecta with her Home Team OR takes the *Offense bonus* points, she will have at least 41 points, enough to eliminate all but Craft Brew. A *lame* Trifecta for 3 to 4 points may be enough for the Win or Place if Craft Brew also fades down the stretch and no Analyst earns 14+ points (*base* Trifecta plus *Offense bonus*).
Craft Brew is in a similar position if he overtakes Roxy Trot, but he needs a *base* Trifecta and *Defense bonus* points to score enough (42) to eliminate the trailing Analysts for the Win or the Place. Any score less than 42 points is vulnerable to Little Tuna and Atwork, while any score less than 38 points is also open to Jimmy V and The Bookie.
Little Tuna and Atwork trail the leader by 10 points, so they need the *base* Trifecta and *Defense bonus* OR the *lame* Trifecta and *Offense bonus* points at a minimum. The *base* Trifecta plus both *Offense* and *Defense* bonus points will take them to 41 points, enough for Place if Craft Brew does not ALSO tie for either of those bonuses.
Jimmy V and The Bookie likely will need the max 17 points to have a comfortable chance at Place or Win. If Craft Brew or Roxy Trot fail to score any points, then a *base* Trifecta and *Offense bonus* points (14 total) may be enough for Place at the least.
Big Tuna cannot take the Win. He has an outside chance to Place if the leaders falter down the final stretch AND he alone earns the *bonuses* for 17 total points. He will reach 33 points and edge one length ahead of Craft Brew.
With her third *base* Trifecta in three weeks, Roxy Trot (34 points) comes out of the near turn with 2 length lead. Her nearest rival, Craft Brew (32 points), closes after netting a *lame* Trifecta and the *Offense bonus* points in Leg 3.
With her third *base* Trifecta and the *Defense bonus* points, Little Tuna 24 points makes her move to tie Atwork, who also earned a third *base* Trifecta, at 24 points. Per third tiebreaker, Little Tuna noses out Atwork for third place by point differential per game [17.7 vs. 7.7 pdpg].
With their third Trifecta in as many weeks, Jimmy V and The Bookie run neck-and-neck at 21 points. Jimmy V holds the edge for fifth place by third tiebreaker [10.3 vs. 6.3 pdpg]. Big Tuna (16 points) is in seventh place–able to Place, but just out of reach of Win.
The rest of the field has been eliminated from the Purse, but several can still earn an entry in The Winner’s Circle with a Show.
The middle of the fields is led by KateTDid (14 points) after she nets her first *base* Trifecta. B-Reezy leads Woody (13 points each) by a head for ninth place based on Home Team Correct Picks (1 vs. 0).
Sponge Mom is in the eleventh position with 12 points, trailed by Wise Orangutan (9 points) and The Strategist (6 points).
Roxy Trot has a 6 point lead (*base* Trifecta) on her nearest challenger. Currently, five Analyst trail her by more than 17 points (maximum possible in a single week).
Box Out
A Box Out occurs when one Analyst selects the same teams to win as an Analyst with fewer points. Both Analysts earn a Trifecta together or bust together, thus, the Analyst in the lead boxes out the challenger and may hold the lead regardless of the Picks outcome. Box Outs may occur in full (three Picks) or in part (one or two Picks). For instance, if two Analysts have two Picks in common, and both Teams from the different Picks win, then the front-running Analyst Boxes Out the trailing Analyst because both win or lose together on the two common Picks. In other words, Analysts playing for one of the four Crowns need to consider which teams the Analyst(s) in the lead may Pick to win in the final Legs.
In the PC-Fecta Derby, a Box Out can be beaten if an Analyst’s Home Team earns the Offense and/or Defense bonus points. If that should be the case, the trailing Analyst nets an extra 3 to 10 points more than the leading Analyst despite having the exact same Picks.
Scenarios
There are 34 points possible in the final two Legs provided that an Analyst hits the *base* Trifecta PLUS all *bonus* points. If there are no ties for best offense or defense, as usually happens, only one Analyst can earn the maximum points possible. This means that the Analysts who do not earn Trifectas or *bonus* points will be eliminated For the Win starting in Leg 3.
For the Win: Roxy Trot can eliminate all Analysts except Craft Brew and Atwork if she earns both the Offense and Defense *bonus* points in Leg 3. Alternatively, all Analysts not within 17 points of Roxy Trot after Leg 3 will be eliminated. The five Analysts currently 18+ points behind likely have to earn Offense or Defense *bonus* points to be in contention for the Win in Leg 4. Typically, as only one Analyst earns each type of *bonus* points, at least three of these Analysts likely will be eliminated from the Win in Leg 3. The Analysts in the middle of the field (i.e., currently within 17 points of the leader) will need to match or beat Roxy Trot’s pace (*lame* or *base* Trifecta) to stay within 17 points after Leg 3. If she hits a Trifecta in Leg 3, the challengers must also earn Offense or Defense *bonus* points to make ground on the leader.
For the Place: Craft Brew (21) currently holds Place, but he does not lead any Analyst by more than 17 points after Leg 2. Six Analysts are within 4 to 11 points of Place. Thus, all Analysts remain in contention for Place and several are in good positions. If most Analysts continue to earn *lame* or *base* Trifectas (as has happened in the first two Legs), an Analyst will likely need to earn 7-10 *bonus* points during the final two Legs to Place.
Down the back stretch, Roxy Trot nabs all ten *bonus points* and nets a *base* Trifecta to take the lead with 27 points total. Craft Brew (21 points) gives chase in 2nd place with a *base* Trifecta and *extra* point of his own. Atwork (17 points) rounds out the leader board in 3rd place after posting a *base* Trifecta and *extra* point.
After two Legs with *base* Trifectas plus *extra* points, Little Tuna, Jimmy V, and The Bookie are in striking distance of the leaders at 14 points each. Little Tuna cowpokes into 4th place on third tiebreaker (+14.0 point differential per game [pdpg]). She is challenged by Rammin’ Jimmy V (+12 pdpg) in 5th place and The Bill-ish Bookie in 6th place (+7.5 pdpg).
Big Tuna wisely went for the *base* Trifecta without his Saintly Home Team and is alone in 7th place with 13 points. In 8th place, B-Reezy (10 points) Charged into the Lion’s den, fumbled the ball, and limped home with a *lame* Trifecta. Sponge Mom (9 points) moves up the field into sole possession of 9th place with her first *base* Trifecta of the season.
Still seeking their first *base* Trifecta of the Derby, Woody (7 points) inches past KateTdDid (7 points) on third tiebreaker (+0.5 pdpg vs. -2.5 pdpg). The Strategist (6 points, -4.5 pdpg) in 10th place and Wise Orangutan (6 points, -16 pdpg!) in last place bring up the back of the field.
Craft Brew (14 points) sprints out of the gates and takes an early lead around the clubhouse turn! With a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and the best Home Team Offense, he hits the backstretch with a 4 point lead.
Roxy Trot (10 points) noses out Atwork (10 points) for second place. Both had a *base* Trifecta, *extra* point, and best Home Team Defense to around the first turn. Roxy Trot’s 30 point differential (third tiebreaker) gains the inside rail to Atwork’s 7 point differential.
Five Analysts are vying for position to challenge the frontrunners with 7 points apiece. Separated only by third tiebreakers, in fourth place, we find Little Tuna (18 point differential), followed by Jimmy V in fifth (6 point differential), B-Reezy in sixth (3 pt. diff.), Big Tuna in seventh (2 pt. diff.), and The Bookie in eighth (1 pt. diff.).
Wise Orangutan (6 points) is alone in ninth and Woody (4 points) holds tenth position.
Out of the gates but trailing at the back of the field with 3 points, The Strategist (-3 pt. diff.), KateTDid (-7 pt. diff.) and Sponge Mom (-16 pt. diff.) look to make up ground on the backstretch.
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