The leaders maintain their advantages in the seventh leg of the race for the Analyst of the Year, while at the back The Bookie makes her move to become the Secretariat of World Football Analysis!
B-Reezy holds the outside rail, followed by Kal Krome, Atwork, and Wise Orangutan one length behind.
Big Tuna, The Strategist, The Bookie, and Little Tuna trail the leader by two lengths.
.
Seven of eight Analysts earn one Correct Pick in the sixth leg of the annual race, while the eighth picks no correct winners.
B-Reezy holds the outside rail, followed by Kal Krome, Atwork, and Wise Orangutan one length behind.
Big Tuna, The Strategist, and Little Tuna trail the leader by two lengths.
The Bookie slips further behind after picking no correct winners. Is it the Secretariat strategy or signs of an Analyst teetering on the precipice of madness?
B-Reezy moves to the outside rail, without interest in the Preakness standings, to overtake Kal Krome and distance himself from Atwork. He reaches 3 Trifectas and 12 Correct Picks in only five weeks.
Kal Krome falls into second place (2 Trifectas, 12 Correct Picks), followed closely by Wise Orangutan (2 Trifectas, 11 Correct Picks) in third. Atwork steps in a bear trap and now follows in fourth place (2 Trifectas, 10 Correct Picks).
Big Tuna and The Strategist (1 Trifecta, 10 Correct Pick) contest fifth place as Little Tuna cowboys up for her first surge of the year (1 Trifecta, 8 Correct Picks).
The Bookie (0 trifectas) eagerly awaits word from Guido on the effectiveness of PEDs for the improvement of football prognostication capacity!
Coming out of the first turn in the annual contest for analytical bragging rights, Kal Krome, B-Reezy, and Atwork gallop into the lead with 2 Trifectas each. Kal (10 Correct Picks) holds a one head lead over B-Reezy and Atwork (9 Correct Picks) at the quarter mark.
The Strategist, Big Tuna, and Wise Orangutan continue to run neck and neck with 1 Trifecta each. The Strategist holds the inside rail for fourth place with 9 Correct Picks (vs. 8 Correct Picks for the fifth-place challengers).
The Bookie (6 Correct Picks) edges Little Tuna (5 Correct Picks) for seventh place in the Annual competition.
Minds Blank has been scratched from the Annual competition. A whistle blower informed The Clearinghouse that the first-ever Analyst of the Year has been conferring with all-powerful beings to gain an insight into future events following her disappointing second season in the World Football Trifecta League. Guido has been dispatched to ensure the integrity of the races and to work with local authorities to monitor the use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) by the disgraced Analyst of the Pacific Northwest.
In Week 3 of the annual contest, Kal Krome and Atwork separate themselves from the pack (2 Trifectas). Kal (8 Correct Picks) holds a one head lead over Atwork (7 Correct Picks).
The Strategist, Big Tuna, and Wise Orangutan run neck and neck with 1 Trifecta and 7 Correct Picks. On their tails, B-Reezy gives chase with 1 Trifecta and 6 Correct Picks.
The Bookie (5 Correct Picks) edges Little Tuna (4 Correct Picks) and Minds Blank (1 Correct Pick) at the back of the pack. The trophy curse continues!
Week 2 proved to be unpredictable for most of the Analysts. Expert analysis from The Strategist this past week!
Six of nine Analysts score their first trifectas by Week 2 of the season. In a four way tie, The Strategist, Big Tuna, Wise Orangutan, and Kal Krome contend for 1st place with 1 trifecta and 5 correct picks after two legs. B-Reezy and Atwork trail the leaders by a head with 1 Trifecta and 4 Correct Picks.
A three way tie for last place with Little Tuna, The Bookie, and Minds Blank. It’s a trophy curse: shine on you crazy diamonds!
To end the year, Little Tuna (73%) and The Strategist (71%) finished the season with the highest Pick accuracy rates. Big Tuna (65%) was the only other Analyst to finish above the Average Pick Accuracy Rate of 64%.
The average trifecta accuracy rate of the Analysts was 25% for the year. Little Tuna (41%), The Strategist (35%), and The Bookie (29%) beat the average rate. In total, we have four Above-Average-Analysts-of-the-Year!
In the individual races, it is not all about accuracy. Kal Krome (60%) won the Fibonacci Stakes despite falling below the average accuracy rate for the race (65%). In the Seeders’ Cup, The Strategist had the better pick accuracy (75%) than Little Tuna (67%) and lost nonetheless. Congratulations to the race winners, Little Tuna (3), The Strategist (1), and Kal Krome (1).
What truly matters in football analysis, though, is how our Analysts compare to The Monkey, The Man, and The Machine!
Last year, The Clearinghouse introduced the notion that some of our Analysts may be less accurate than a monkey flinging its poo at the names of three teams each week. Those three teams would have a 50% chance of being correct, on average, and The Monkey could accurately pick a trifecta 12.5% of the time (50% times 50% times 50% equals 12.5%).
In a 17-week competition, the proverbial poo-flinging monkey is expected to pick 2.125 trifectas during the season – the true test of being smarter than a monkey. Six of eight Analysts provide evidence that humankind is more evolved than poo-flinging monkeys!
Another test for our Analysts’ expertise is the direct comparison with their colleagues who make picks each week (CBS) and in our sports nation (ESPN). At CBS and ESPN, the so-called NFL Expert Picks ranged in accuracy from 59% to 66% (CBS) and from 56% to 64% (ESPN). The ESPN Sports Nation favorite was accurate in 63% of its picks. Thus, our eight Analysts compare favorably to the tele-tubey experts and collectively beat the nation with a 64% accuracy rate.
In a true test of football acumen, however, there is one man in the nation who stands above all other men (and all tele-tubey NFL experts are men) – Mike Ditka. At ESPN, The Oracle of Ditka picked 153 games accurately for a rate of 60% – a lower accuracy rate than all but three of our mixed-gender WFTL Experts during the year!
The Clearinghouse has offered the fivethirtyeight.com ELO predictions as a resource to our Analysts during the year. The risk, however, was that The Machine is more accurate than Man or Woman. So, we at the Clearinghouse, tracked ELO predictions for the Analyst of the Year Award – since winning picks and trifectas are the only consideration for the annual competition.
Each week, ELO suggested three teams with the highest probability of winning their respective games, and a trifecta, as seen below.
As the table above shows, ELO had a rough year, correctly picking 34 games (67%) and accurately predicting only 4 trifectas total (24%). The four trifectas were spread across the four races (one per race). ELO would not have won an individual race or the annual competition by picking the most likely winners. In Week 16, like many of our illustrious Analysts, ELO had zero correct picks.
Overall, with an average 47.8% trifecta probability rate, ELO expected to earn EIGHT trifectas during the year and earned only FOUR. How frustrating for The Machine Overlords!
Without further ado:
For prognostications that proved more accurate than ELO predictions in both trifectas and picks, Little Tuna and The Strategist earn Blue-Rage-Against-The-Machine Ribbons! The Bookie earns a Yellow-Rage-Against-The-Machine Ribbon for predicting more trifectas than ELO!
Man might not defeat the Machines, but Woman will!
[Round of enthusiastic applause]
Honorable mention for Big Tuna, Wise Orangutan, and Kal Krome for representing Man as nearly the equal of Machine.
[Round of unenthusiastic and uncertain applause]
Five Analysts earn More-Powerful-than-The-Ditka Ribbons: Little Tuna, The Strategist, Big Tuna, The Bookie, and Wise Orangutan.
[A few lonely whistles and catcalls from the Analysts’ Balcony]
Finally, the Go-Buy-a-Monkey Ribbons go to…. Minds Blank and B-Reezy!
[Coughs and murmurs in the audience]
Oh, how the mighty Minds Blank has fallen!
[A gesture from the Analysts’ Balcony]
A nail-biter to the end!
In the final week of the Annual competition, two Analysts remained in contention for the coveted Horse’s Anal(yst) of the Year Trophy and purse.
Pulling a rope-a-dope, Little Tuna wisely chose not to pick her Home Team Patriots to win in Miami. Nevertheless, she saw her lead diminish to the narrowest of margins in the final moments of the season as the Seahawks put a first-half beat down on her tricky pick, the Cardinals, ending her hopes for a decisive trifecta victory.
Scrappy to the last moments of the season, The Strategist exploited the Little Tuna’s error and tried to ride her Rams to victory. Greg the Leg lined up for the game-winning field goal that would have sent the Analyst of the Year Award into a playoff… and missed! The Rams’ opponent then countered with a game-winning field goal.
In a photo finish, the Analyst of the Year Award goes to…. Little Tuna!
With seven trifectas and 37 correct picks, Little Tuna moves from worst to first from Season I to Season II and proves her mettle in this game of skill!
The remaining Analysts finished in:
2nd place | The Strategist | 6 trifectas and 36 correct picks
3rd place | The Bookie | 5 trifectas and 32 correct picks
4th place | Big Tuna | 4 trifectas and 33 correct picks
5th place | Wise Orangutan | 4 trifectas and 32 correct picks
6th place | Kal Krome | 4 trifectas and 30 correct picks
7th place – Tie | B-Reezy | 2 trifectas and 30 correct picks
7th place – Tie | Minds Blank | 2 trifectas and 30 correct picks
In the worst week in World Football Trifecta League history, four of eight Analysts fail to get one correct pick in the week, including the current leader, Little Tuna.
Nonetheless, Little Tuna’s two trifecta (7 trifectas, 35 picks) lead with one week to go eliminates The Bookie from contention in the annual competition. With two correct picks, however, The Strategist (6 trifectas, 34 picks) closes ground on the Little Tuna in week 16.
In the final week, Little Tuna wins the Analyst of the Year award with one more trifecta. If not, The Strategist has an opportunity to send the annual award into a playoff or to win outright should Little Tuna pick less than two correct winners.
Previously eliminated: Minds Blank, B-Reezy, Big Tuna, Kal Krome, and Wise Orangutan.
Little Tuna’s seventh trifecta of the season eliminates three more Analysts from the annual competition: Big Tuna, Kal Krome, and Wise Orangutan. With two weeks to go, the LT has already defeated the top four contenders of season I.
In second place, The Strategist (6 trifectas) trails as the most challenging Analyst for the annual title. Strategist will also have to make up ground in Correct Picks if the Analyst of the Year award ends in a tie with Little Tuna.
In third, The Bookie (5 trifectas) will need two trifectas and some seriously bad picks by the Little Tuna in order to overcome the 5 Correct Pick lead that Little Tuna now has over The Bookie.
Previously eliminated: Minds Blank, B-Reezy.
