Author: The Clearinghouse

Scenarios | Fibonacci Stakes 2015 | Leg 5

Fibonacci Stakes Leg 5 Scenarios:

In the final calculations of the Fibonacci Stakes, all of the Analysts remain in contention for the winner’s circle. With 5 base trifecta points and 3 bonus trifecta points at stake in Leg 5, an Analyst can come from behind to win with 7 or 8 points.

Three leaders, however, have positioned themselves for the stretch run. Below are the most likely scenarios for the final turn of the Fibonacci Stakes:

  1. The Bookie holds the inside rail over B-Reezy and Kal Krome. If she goes for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4), she will reach 14 points and hold the tiebreaker over B-Reezy. If she goes for 7 points (2 of 3 same picks from Leg 4 including the Panthers), only B-Reezy can pass her with an 8 point trifecta. If she goes for 6 points, B-Reezy can pass her with a Bears-included trifecta or Kal Krome can overtake her with a 7 point trifecta.
  2. B-Reezy can run for 8 points (same three picks as Leg 4) and distance himself from the other Analysts (except Bookie). With a 7 point trifecta including the Bears, B-Reezy will hold the edge over Kal Krome. If B-Reezy drops the Bears or goes for a 6 point trifecta (1 same team), then Kal Krome can overtake him with a Seahawks-led trifecta.
  3. Kal Krome’s best chance is for B-Reezy and The Bookie to falter while picking up a trifecta of any value. Having taken the Bengals last week, Kal can only notch 7 points in the final leg for a total of 12 points. Any trifecta combination, however, maintains his lead over all lower-positioned Analysts.
  4. Little Tuna, with 1 point currently, also took the Bengals last week. She may only earn 7 points to finish with 8 points. In a tie with other Analysts at 8 points, only Big Tuna can beat her (head-to-head tiebreaker due to Broncos over Pats). Otherwise, her 3 Home Team picks give her a comfortable lead over the other straggling Analysts.
  5. Big Tuna, Minds Blank,  and The Strategist are in position to carry the same three teams for 8 total points in the Stakes. None of these Analysts currently have a Home Team selection, so Minds Blank has a minor edge since she can take her Packers. Big Tuna and The Strategist did not take their Home Teams in Leg 4 and would sacrifice a trifecta point (for 7 possible total) if they make the switch to their Home Team in the final leg.
  6. Wise Orangutan needs a whole lotta losers in order to win the Stakes. Having picked the Bengals in Leg 4, Orangutan can finish with only 7 points total.
  7. In a tie for first place with 6 points, The Bookie and B-Reezy hold the edge over most other Analysts by virtue of Home Team selections and head-to-head wins. If the Panthers lose and Bears win, B-Reezy has an opportunity to overtake The Bookie in the final leg based on Bonus Picks (third tiebreaker).

So, if The Bookie, B-Reezy, and/or Kal Krome earn a trifecta, one of the three Analysts will win the Stakes. If the three leaders stumble, the advantages for the five laggards is roughly Little Tuna, Big Tuna/Minds Blank/The Strategist (depending on picks), and lastly the Orangutan.

Share This:

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 12

Analyst of the Year II

Quite a bit of movement this week in the Analyst of the Year award.

In first, Little Tuna continues to hold a one length lead over The Strategist and The Bookie. With only one correct pick in week 12, The Bookie falls behind the The Strategist by a nose into third place.

Big Tuna holds onto fourth place by a length, but B-Reezy is closing fast after moving from 7th to 5th place. Wise Orangutan continues to fall behind and now holds 6th place.

Kal saved his season with a trifecta in week 12, keeping himself in mathematically in the race for Analyst of the Year. But, with only one trifecta each, Minds Blank and Kal Krome face elimination by Little Tuna who leads them by 4 trifectas with only 5 weeks to go!

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 12
Standings after Week 12 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 12
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 12 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Share This:

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 4

Fibonacci Stakes, 2015-16

Standings after Leg 4

The Bookie fails to put away the competition in Leg 4 of the Fibonacci Stakes when the Packers fall to the Bears! Riding the Bears, B-Reezy and Kal Krome make a move in the fourth leg to place themselves in serious contention for the Fibonacci Stakes.

Going into the final leg, The Bookie holds a narrow lead over B-Reezy based on Home Team selections. Kal Krome trails by only one length in third place.

At the back of the pack, Little Tuna holds an edge over the struggling Analysts with zero points. With up to 8 points for a winning trifecta, the laggards still may come from behind for the win!

Trifecta Points

Standings | Fibonacci StakesI II | Leg 4
Standings after Leg 4 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 4
Tiebreakers after Leg 4 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

 

Share This:

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 11

Analyst of the Year II

After the week of upsets, The Bookie runs strong to move into a tie for second place with The Strategist, trailing Little Tuna by one trifecta.

Big Tuna clings to fourth place while at the back, Wise Orangutan, Minds Blank, B-Reezy, and Kal Krome continue to struggle with their calculations during the Fibonacci month.

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 11
Standings after Week 11 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 11
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 11 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Share This:

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 3

Fibonacci Stakes, 2015-16

Standings after Leg 3

In the third leg of the Stakes, The Bookie rushes to the front of the herd. Little Tuna holds onto second by a length.

At the back of the pack, B-Reezy is building tiebreakers with a head-to-head win over The Strategist and two correct Home Team selections.

Trifecta Points

Standings | Fibonacci StakesI II | Leg 3
Standings after Leg 3 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 3
Tiebreakers after Leg 3 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Share This:

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 10

Analyst of the Year II

It just keeps getting easier for the Analysts… Not!

After a week of upsets, none of the Analysts scores a trifecta in the tenth leg of the annual competition.

Little Tuna and The Strategist retain first and second place. Big Tuna scrambles his picks, giving The Bookie an opportunity to move into a tie for 3rd place.

At the back, Wise Orangutan, Minds Blank, B-Reezy, and Kal Krome are trotting to the finish line.

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 10
Standings after Week 10 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 10
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 10 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Share This:

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 2

Fibonacci Stakes, 2015-16

Standings after Leg 2

After a wipe out in Leg 2 of the  Fibonacci Stakes, The Bookie and Little Tuna hold their early lead. B-Reezy gains a tiebreaker advantage over The Strategist and leads the rest of the Analysts in third place with 2 Home Team selections.

Trifecta Points

Standings | Fibonacci StakesI II | Leg 2
Standings after Leg 2 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 2
Tiebreakers after Leg 2 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

 

Share This:

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 9

Analyst of the Year II

Little Tuna stretches her lead over The Strategist to a full length, notching her fifth trifecta of the year. The Strategist holds onto second place by a length.

The Bookie is making her move with a new Home Team to reach 3 trifectas and fourth place, trailing Big Tuna in third place by a head (19 vs. 17 correct picks).

Wise Orangutan has fallen to the back of the pack, winded after two trifectas in the first month of the race. Minds Blank and B-Reezy continue to run stride-for stride in sixth place with one trifecta.

Has anyone seen Kal Krome? Kal? Kal?

Trifectas

Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 8Standings | Analyst of the Year II | Week 9
Standings after Week 9 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Tiebreakers

Correct Picks | Analyst of the Year II | Week 9
Picks Tiebreaker after Week 9 of the Analyst of the Year, 2015-16

Share This:

Standings | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 1

Fibonacci Stakes, 2015-16

Standings after Leg 1

The Bookie and Little Tuna take an early lead out of the gates in the  Fibonacci Stakes. The Bookie also gains the tiebreaker advantage over Minds Blank after the Panthers hold off the Packers.

Trifecta Points

Standings | Fibonacci StakesI II | Leg 1
Standings after Leg 1 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Tiebreakers

Tiebreakers | Fibonacci Stakes II | Leg 1
Tiebreakers after Leg 1 of the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Share This:

Fibonacci Stakes II | Slate of Games

The Entrants

The Bookie and Wise Orangutan have decided to release their original Home Teams before the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes. With the new additions, Jets and Panthers, the entrants are:

Fibonacci Stakes II | Slate of Analysts
The Analysts and their Home Teams for the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

Slate of Games

Fibonacci Stakes II | Slate of Games
The Slate of Games for the 2015-16 Fibonacci Stakes

The slate of games for the Fibonacci Stakes  II includes five head-to-head contests this month (again, the first tiebreaker). The feature contest is the clash of Big and Little Tuna’s currently undefeated Home Teams in Leg 4 of the race. In Leg 1, The Bookie’s new steed, Panthers, host Minds Blank’s Packers for the position in the NFC playoff race. Lastly, beginning in Leg 2, B-Reezy’s Bears challenge The Strategist’s Rams, Big Tuna’s Broncos, and Minds Blank’s Packers in successive weeks.

B-Reezy has long odds to win the Stakes but the string of games in the mid-week of the season could break other Analysts’ hopes.

Home teams owned by an Analyst are in bold. The team at the left is the visiting team; the team at the right is the host (playing at home). There are several featured games (now subject to broadcast flexing): four Thursday night games including two on Thanksgiving, one Sunday night game, and two Monday night games. The Seahawks are on a bye in Leg 1, the final Bye of the season for the Analysts’ Home Teams.

The Bills in Leg 3 are the only un-owned opponent that appears two weeks in a row. The Bills may be taken for the Fibonacci bonus if picked in both Leg 2 and Leg 3.

Analysts have at least 6 games to select from each week and 8 games in the final week of the Fibonacci Stakes, likely insuring that the race will be wide open through the final stretch!

Picks

Remember: Every Analyst has a bias for his or her Home Team and may not pick the sponsored team to lose. Analysts do not have to pick his or her Home Team  to win, but the second tiebreaker remains the number of correct Home Team selections. See the Fibonacci Stakes rules for more.

Email three picks to The Bookie before each leg (week) of the Race. The first picks are due on Saturday, November 7.

Resources

Check the current playoff standing of Home Teams.

Check the ELO predictive model win strength of Home Teams.

Note on Strategy

Week 1 of the Fibonacci Stakes may look unimportant, but which teams Analysts pick in week 1 determines directly how many points Analysts may earn in Week 2. The number of points possible in the first two weeks (max = 5) is based on the number of the same teams taken in both weeks.  Then, those choices in week 2 may influence week 3 and so on — so do not be fooled by the first week’s point value!

Of course, Analysts may pick any three teams each week and there is NO additional benefit for holding a team three weeks in a row. Since the base value of a trifecta goes up each week, *bonus* points are more valuable in the early weeks than in the final weeks.

Since 8 to 14 points are possible in the final two weeks, no Analyst will be eliminated before the fourth week. Analysts who earn any points in weeks 2, 3, or 4 will most likely be in a position to win in the final week.

Analysts will be looking behind to their prior week’s picks to maximize *bonus* points and may want to look ahead to the next’s week’s games to see which teams are likely to win two weeks in a row or the next week.

The schedule for the month will also matter as Bye weeks and head-to-head competition will interrupt consecutive picks and win streaks.

Share This: